Lauer September 2024 Insights

October 02, 2024 | R. Matthew Lauer


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Goldilocks Economy

NBER recession indicators

September has been a busy month in the financial world. With the Fed trimming interest rates, the US has seen a surge in refinancing activity as borrowing costs drop. This puts the economy in a delicate “Goldilocks” situation—not too hot, not too cold—showing the fine line central banks walk to avoid tipping us into trouble.

Refinancing and Canadian mortgage reforms

When interest rates drop, homeowners rush to refinance for cheaper payments. Canada’s new mortgage reforms sweeten the deal, raising the insured mortgage cap to $1.5 million and allowing 30-year terms for first-time buyers and new builds. Plus, switching lenders at renewal now skips the stress test, boosting competition. For investors, deducting loan interest adds a nice tax perk to the mix. All in all, lower costs, more options, and a financial win for borrowers.
Ask us for our article on tax-deductible interest.

Powell indicates further, smaller rate cuts, insists the Fed is ‘not on any preset course’

The recent Fed rate cuts, while signaling a cooling of inflation and economic stability, are not part of a preset course and are likely to become smaller going forward, as indicated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Despite easing inflation and strong economic growth, Powell warned that aggressive cuts could overheat the economy. The broader picture reflects a “goldilocks” scenario—where conditions are balanced—not too hot, not too cold. However, cutting rates too quickly could loosen financial conditions excessively, leading to a potential overheating of the economy. Powell’s remarks underscore the importance of cautious rate adjustments to maintain economic balance without triggering excessive inflation or overheating.
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35 ways real people are using A.I. right now

AI is being used in fascinating and creative ways by people from all walks of life. From planning meals for picky eaters, designing spaceships, and writing wedding speeches, to helping with workouts and organizing research for a Ph.D., AI is transforming everyday tasks. It’s making life easier, saving time, and even adding a bit of fun—whether it’s assisting a gardener with plant selection or a game designer in creating new puzzles. As AI continues to evolve, it’s becoming a tool not just for efficiency but also for creativity and problem-solving across countless industries.
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We hope you enjoyed this edition of insights. 

 


Works cited: Apollo Global Asset Management, Bloomberg, ChatGPT, CNBC, Government of Canada, The New York Times.
Image Notes: NBER recession indicators include Real Manufacturing & Trade Sales, Industrial Production Index, Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Nonfarm payrolls, and Household survey employment. Image Source: BEA, FRB, BLS, NBER, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist