The Brief

October 28, 2023 | R. Matthew Lauer


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A curated summary of this week's key global market and economic developments.

The Brief

Economic Overview - US and Global

The US economy shows mixed signals, with strong durable goods orders but concerns about inflation. Core consumer inflation in Tokyo surged unexpectedly. Turkey's central bank raised interest rates significantly to combat inflation, while Ukraine's central bank cut rates. Ivory Coast faces challenges in selling cocoa export contracts due to supply shortages and higher prices.

Geopolitical Developments

The US conducted strikes on facilities in eastern Syria amid ongoing concerns about regional conflicts. Taylor Swift achieved billionaire status, Elon Musk and X CEO Linda Yaccarino discussed plans for a news service, and Berkshire Hathaway faces a lawsuit. China's former Premier Li Keqiang passed away, leaving a reformist legacy. Some companies express caution about consumer spending despite a strong US economy.

Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy and Tools

The Federal Reserve's approach to fighting inflation is evolving, with interest rate hikes and the balance sheet manipulation through quantitative tightening and expansion being key tools. The Fed uses the federal funds rate to influence the economy, raising it to cool inflation and lowering it to stimulate growth.

US Housing Market and Orange Juice Prices

US new home sales surged to a 19-month high in September, with home builders offering incentives and discounts amid rising mortgage rates. Orange juice prices reached record highs, driven by factors like greening disease and extreme weather, impacting the beverage industry.

US GDP Expectations and Corporate Developments

Economists anticipate strong US GDP growth for Q4 but caution about its sustainability. Ted Pick is set to become the new CEO of Morgan Stanley. Israel conducted a limited incursion into northern Gaza, raising concerns about escalating conflict. Meta's stock dropped due to economic uncertainties, influencing global markets.

Automotive and Earnings Updates

The UAW reached a tentative agreement with Ford, with a significant wage hike putting pressure on other automakers. Earnings reports from Amazon, Intel, and Ford are expected. The European Central Bank may pause its rate hikes for the first time in over a year.