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Podcast: What is a neutral rate of interest and why did the Bank of Canada move it higher?

Forward Guidance

For the week of May 20th

Economic Analysis

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April saw a small relief in surging U.S. inflation

May 15, 2024

Year-over-year headline CPI reading in the U.S. edged lower in April to 3.4% from 3.5%, in March, with easing in the other “core” non-food and energy items (down from 3.8% in March to 3.6% in April) partially offset by a tick higher in energy inflation.

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Canadian employment jumped higher in April

May 10, 2024

Canadian employment jumped 90k in April after edging lower in March (-2k) with the April surge led by hiring in service-sector industries

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Featured Insights

Podcast: The 10-Minute Take

May 16, 2024

On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they chat monetary policy and answer all of your burning questions around the 'neutral' rate of interest.

Proof Point: Not addressing population aging can be very costly

May 15, 2024

Canada’s non-permanent resident caps are set to curb ballooning population growth. The population will be at least 2.5% smaller in 2027 than it would have been without the...

RBC U.S. Inflation Watch

May 15, 2024

RBC Economics provides a monthly analysis of the key indicators on price trends in the United States.

RBC Consumer Spending Tracker

May 10, 2024

RBC Economics provides a snapshot and an analysis of Canadian consumer spending.

Proof Point: A weaker Canadian dollar won’t necessarily derail BoC interest rate cuts

April 23, 2024

The timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada will be determined by domestic economic and inflation conditions and not the gap in monetary policy with the U.S.

Federal Budget 2024: Lack of spending restraint offset by revenue surprise and tax hikes

April 16, 2024

Budget 2024 showed a slightly worse bottom line throughout the federal government’s fiscal plan compared to previous estimates but kept...

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Canadian Housing

Influx of new listings help ease supply-demand pressure

May 15, 2024

We saw a healthy number of new listings come to market this April—but even so, buyers remained on the sidelines...

Spring brings sellers out; buyers remain hesitant

May 7, 2024

Sellers are making their way back into the housing market—not everywhere but in some of Canada’s largest cities. Statistical reports...

Mixed start to the spring housing market

April 12, 2024

March brought a mixed bag of activity to Canada’s housing market. Resales continued to linger around February levels at the national level—still softer than activity that took place pre-pandemic.

The Great Rebuild
Seven ways to fix Canada’s housing shortage

April 8, 2024

Too many Canadians are struggling to find a home they can afford—making housing the defining issue of this country’s politics and economics.

Toughest time ever to afford a home as soaring interest costs keep raising the bar

April 2, 2024

High interest rates propelled ownership costs to new summit in the fourth quarter of 2023: A household earning a median income needed to spend a staggering 63.5% of it to cover the costs of owning an average home at market price.

Bumpy recovery for Canada’s housing market

March 18, 2024

February offered valuable clues on the direction Canada’s housing market is taking. Improving sentiment among buyers and sellers—no doubt stoked by growing expectations

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Economy and Markets

It's hard to leave (higher rates) when you can't find the door (to lower inflation)

May 9, 2024

Upside inflation surprises year-to-date in the U.S. will keep the Fed on the sidelines for now – we continue to expect the first cut to the fed funds target in December, contingent on both growth and inflation gradually and persistently slowing.

BoC and the Fed, you gotta keep ‘em separated

April 10, 2024

A resilient U.S. economy and signs of reacceleration in inflation look likely to derail Fed plans to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year – we now look for just one 25 basis point cut in December.

Canadian economic slowdown is not over

March 12, 2024

The Canadian economy is still slowing as the lagged impact of earlier interest rate increases materialize. Gross domestic product edged...

U.S. outperformance continues but no sunshine yet for the Canadian economy

March 12, 2024

Resilience in the U.S. continues to buoy investors’ spirits. Conditions also look to have already bottomed out in the euro area and U.K. In Canada, things are much less upbeat.

New rules

February 7, 2024

How will the rest of this current rate cycle from the BoC compare with previous ones? In short, we expect more things to differ than to stay the same.

Ordinary pain

January 9, 2024

Fed willingness to talk about interest rate cuts sent markets rallying to close out 2023.

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Provincial Outlook and Fiscal Analysis

Federal Budget 2024: Lack of spending restraint offset by revenue surprise and tax hikes

April 16, 2024

Budget 2024 showed a slightly worse bottom line throughout the federal government’s fiscal plan compared to previous estimates but kept...

Manitoba Budget 2024: Deficit cut in half but debt burden continues to grow

April 3, 2024

The provincial debt burden is expected to be the heaviest on record, reaching 39.1% of gross domestic product by fiscal 2025-26.

Ontario Budget 2024: Balancing priorities, not the books

March 27, 2024

Province anticipates $9.8 billion deficit, scrapping last year’s plan for a surplus ($200 million) in 2024-25. Return to balance has...

Newfoundland and Labrador Budget 2024: Higher spending leads to another year of deficits

March 22, 2024

Newfoundland and Labrador projects a $152 million budget shortfall in 2024-25, scrapping surplus plans for the upcoming fiscal year. Revenues...

Saskatchewan Budget 2024: Record spending ends surpluses

March 21, 2024

A $483 million deficit now replaces the previous billion-dollar surplus projection in 2023-24 after an unexpected surge in crop insurance...

New Brunswick Budget 2024: Planning a surplus for the seventh year in a row

March 20, 2024

New Brunswick projects a $41 million surplus in 2024-25—marking the seventh year it’s kept the books in the black.

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Forecasts & Data

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