There have been more negative than positive developments in recent weeks. There are two key positives: the U.S. economic recovery appears to be enjoying a mini-acceleration. In addition, there have been major breakthroughs in antiviral medications. Once they are produced and distributed, they should greatly reduce the hospitalization and fatality rate of COVID-19. However there are many negatives: globally, COVID-19 cases are beginning to rise again. Inflation remains very high, and may increase slightly further. Central banks have become more hawkish. Supply chain problems persist. And finally, the business cycle has advanced from “early cycle” to “mid cycle”.

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