What a crazy end of the week: just more day to day news driven events.
Oil futures rose as much as 13% on Friday after Israel carried out airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, stoking fears of a wider war in the region which accounts for roughly a third of global crude production. Brent crude futures topped $78 a barrel overnight, the largest intraday jump since the onset of the war in Ukraine, before paring back some gains to stand at roughly $75 a barrel.
According to OPEC, Iranian oil production stood at roughly 3.3 million barrels per day in April. The situation remains fluid and evolving, though a sustained increase in oil prices would likely weigh on the global economy and add to inflationary pressures, making it difficult for central banks to ignore.
If there is one thing that I always remind clients: reacting to events in instant time, making a whole bunch of changes, never ends up being the correct strategy when looking back. Sometimes it is tempting to feel that we ”need to do something”. Until understanding whether there are long-term fundamental implications from an event, or news or announcement, we are just guessing, and guessing is not an investment strategy.
This doesn’t mean that we won’t have more calls and reach out if there are any immediate concerns.
I was going to talk about if/when interest rates might start reducing in the US, and Canada and what we need to look at. But this is now the shortened version.
You don’t have to understand this chart: the only take-away is that it is seen as providing the Fed with more flexibility to cut rates in the months ahead.
Sunday is a big day. Its of course Father’s Day. Where we get to honour our Father’s, father figures in our lives, and those who are no longer with us, and the infuence of Fathers in society. I know what I will be doing that afternoon: working the barbeque and enjoying my kids and family (after pretending that I love the pair of socks and sweater that I might get during the day!)
Have a great Weekend, and Happy Father’s Day.