While we don't know what the exact timeline will be, it was interesting that electric cars passed a crucial tipping point in 23 countries. A year ago, it was 19 countries. Battery powered cars could be replaced by something even more efficient and environmentally friendly, like hydrogen-fueled cars. That said, we can be reasonably confident that for anyone under the age of 10 today in North America, electric cars will be almost entirely the only option they will consider.
I learned that most successful new technologies—televisions, mobile phones, LED light bulbs—follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl in the early-adopter phase, then quickly once things go mainstream. Regarding fully electric vehicles, 5% seems to be the inflection point. The time it takes to get to that level varies widely by country. Still, once the universal challenges of car costs, charger availability, and driver skepticism are solved for the few, the masses soon follow. When we first completed this analysis a year ago, 19 countries had passed what’s become a critical EV tipping point: 5% of new car sales are powered only by electricity. This threshold signals the start of mass adoption when technological preferences rapidly flip. Since then, five more countries have made the leap.
The takeaway is that “The trajectory laid out by these early adopters shows how EVs can surge from 5% to 25% of new cars in just four years.”
From an investment perspective, we are still very early into this thesis. I’m working on our next call with one of RBC Environmental Investment specialist, and we will explore this and other themes.
A shameless plug. I’m running for the RBC Race for the Kids on Saturday, September 23. It’s a win-win: I get to add to my mileage for my New York Marathon in November, while supporting an important cause that I’m proud to be associated with at RBC DS. I’d be grateful for any contributions to this, and will send a photo from “Race Day”.
Still on track for the Men’s Final at Flushing Meadow for the US Open (Alcaraz over Djokovic). On the women’s side, not so much, but I’m now cheering for American Coco Gauff. Coco just seems like the right name for a tennis champion!
Have a great weekend!