Kingsmill's Investment Miscellanea - Friday November 18th, 2022

November 18, 2022 | Joshua Kingsmill


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I’m not sure if this will be hitting the main-stream press, but I thought it was interesting that he Prime Minister of Canada announced that the Government of Canada will issue Ukraine Sovereignty Bonds, which will help the government continue operations, including providing essential services to Ukrainians, like pensions, and purchasing fuel before winter. The equivalent proceeds from this five-year bond will be channeled directly to Ukraine through the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Administered Account. I wasn’t sure if I had ever seen one of these before, and in fact Canada is the first country to offer a bond for purchase in support of the Ukraine. Now I want to see if it’s ever been done by any countries in support of other conflicts…It’s a fairly creative way to provide support.

 

Next week, I will confirm a date in the 2nd week of December for our next call, on the topic of interest rate investment opportunities in this rising rate environment. I want to point out that it is fairly unique that investors today can get fairly good rates on things like GIC's and bonds that are sort in duration, but that if you go further out, those rates actually are a lot less. Normally, the further out one is willing to commit, the higher the rates should be for being locked in. This isn’t the case right now.

 

 

This week, a second chart. We aren’t in the business of guessing what’s going to happen year over year, but this chart is a good reminder that even good years have bad stretches. Around 60% of years have 10% price draw-down or more since 1980. Who knows if this emerging rally will continue and for how long, but I found this chart helpful.

 

 

So stay tuned for the date for our next presentation! 

 

This weekend is the 109th Grey Cup, which will be played to decide the Canadian Football League championship in Regina. While the Super Bowl in the US is a much bigger deal to Americans (The Super Bowl nearly always garners above 100 million viewers, and the most recent Grey Cup reached a high of just 7.9 million viewers), Canadians can be smug with the knowledge that its only 55 years old.

 

Two predictions: First, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers will soundly beat the Toronto Argonauts. As a Hamilton Tiger Cat fan, it can’t be any other way! Second, the Grey Cup will score more points than they will in the Super bowl next year. One year, I will go to a Grey Cup game in one of the homes of CFL football: the fans in Regina make it a big celebration.