Kingsmill's Investment Miscellanea - Friday October 7th, 2022

October 07, 2022 | Joshua Kingsmill


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We had a nice reception and turn-out for Eric Nuttall’s Oil and Gas presentation. I promise, one of these times, I will get it right from beginning to end, without any hitches! I think one of the key take-aways is that most of the Oil producers that are on Eric’s radar have a compelling combination of no debt, or soon no debt, with mandates to pay out excesses as distributions, and the sector as a whole is very under-followed.

 

Happy to send the slide-presentation to anyone interested, and we are working on our next presentation. So stay tuned for more information!

 

I came across an interesting chart that examines the relationship between the uncertainty leading up to “mid-term elections” in the U.S. (Midterm elections are the general elections that are held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term of office, where all the seats in the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, and most governors). So it’s a big deal in the U.S. in terms of a significant potential turn-over of elected officials. Midterm elections generally see the president's party lose seats in Congress, and often a change of control in one or both of the Senate or Congress.

 

Historically, after the uncertainty leading up to these elections, significant rallies occur…Regardless of which party we hope might win, perhaps this will again lead to a market rally:

 

Of course, the Toronto Blue Jays are front and center (possibly competing with Thanksgiving for many people). FUN FACT: Sportsnet has never drawn a bigger TV audience than when the Jays are in the playoffs.

 

In 2015, they drew an all-time record of over 5 million views to watch a playoff game. When they’re playing well, the Blue Jays are the most valuable asset in Canadian media. It really is a “monopoly”: The Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communications, which also owns the stadium, as well as the broadcaster (Sportsnet) that has exclusive television and radio rights. A deep run in the playoffs means the company is poised to cash in on everything from tickets and t-shirts to all of the companies scrambling to buy air time on a playoff game watched by millions across Canada.

 

So I’m sure Rogers will be pleased with my prediction that the Jays will win this weekend’s series versus Seattle: the start of a long playoff run...