Kingsmill’s Investment Miscellanea: Friday November 6, 2020

November 06, 2020 | Joshua Kingsmill


So, did anything happen this week that I might have missed? Just a short one to finish up this week. Next week I will do a deeper dive into a hat I think might some of the investment implications with the arrival of a new President in 2021

While it’s hard to predict when the US election's actual result will become “official” as ballots continue to trickle in, the market, as well an understanding of the political process and the mathematical probabilities, clearly indicate that there will be a known result. Ultimately, this election won’t be “contested” in a way that will provide long-term market uncertainty, and that is a good thing.

For those of us who are optimists, this chart might provide some comfort: The U.S. market tends to do quite well in the last months of a year, during election years:

So there will be a lot to digest and assess as the implications of the US Election trickle in over the next while. Two things are certain, though:

  1. we are a lot closer to a COVID-19 vaccination today than we were 6 months ago
  2. in contrast to previous recessions, the market has rebounded much quicker in the aftermath of the pandemic-induced recession

For those blessed to be in Southern Ontario, this is a great “Indian Summer,” and I predict we will all enjoy this likely last warm long weekend.