The force of gravity is a constant presence that shapes every moment of our existence, grounding us to the earth, yet it’s so fundamental to our daily experience that we scarcely give it a second thought.
Equally, there is a human development, a force we likely never ever think about, --- the trailblazing and innovative development of microchip technology that is a driving force behind all modern technological progress.
Take one simple device everyone uses 24-7 from children to seniors --- the mobile phone. Its capability embraces communication, messaging, photography, navigation, email, internet browsing, remote commerce, bill-payment, data-hosting, access to the cloud, and a plethora of applications making your life’s journey simpler. What a breathtaking example of the pervasiveness of integrated circuitry in the guise of the microchip.
I’m presenting this conversation in two parts:
- The Past and The Present
- To The Future
The Past
It’s hard to imagine, in the technology of vacuum tubes and bulky transistors, a visionary named Jack Kilby, at Texas Instruments, created the first microchip in 1958 (Demonstrated on September 12, 1958), --- a modest piece of germanium hosting few simple circuits. This tiny invention sparked a revolution, propelling humanity into the digital age.
Simultaneously and independently, Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor developed a similar but more practical version of the integrated circuit that used a silicon chip instead of germanium (Winning him the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2000). Noyce’s design incorporated a method for electrically connecting the components on the chip, which became the foundation for future developments in microchip technology.
Over the decades, through the magic of innovation and relentless miniaturization, these microchips transformed from simple electronic curiosities in the beating hearts of today’s technology.
They now reside in everything from the phone/watch you carry, to the car you drive, to every business and government operation, to increasingly harnessing Artificial Intelligence --- containing billions of transistors and performing feats once deemed the realm of science fiction. This tale of the microchip, from its humble beginnings to the cornerstone of modern civilization, is a testament to human ingenuity and the endless quest for progress.
The Present
Intel, Samsung, and TSMC --- in Taiwan, are capable of mass-producing chips powerful and small enough for today’s advanced mobile technologies. Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices are also battling for technical supremacy and market share in the field of AI chips --- considering the soaring demand for the processors that power OpenAI’s ChatGPT and similar applications. At the same time China is focusing on global dominance – for next generation smart processors --- with its’ biggest chipmaker SMIC.
Designing and manufacturing processes are extremely long, complex, and costly requiring staggering levels of Research and Development, years of experimentation, and a very high level of specialist equipment and knowledge.
For example, cutting-edge equipment machines that can transfer microscopic patterns on to each wafer using a process called photolithography is made by a single Dutch company, ASML, using extreme ultraviolet light to crate these fine stencils. The machines are the size of a bus with the capability to accurately direct a laser to hit a golf ball as far away as the Moon.
Exploring the Practical
Consider modern Emily, a hypothetical software engineer, in the bustling city of Technoville, whose daily life is a vivid illustration of the transformative impact of microchips.
Her morning starts with a jog, her pace and heart rate monitored by her sleek smartwatch. Before returning home, her watch is synced with the home’s automated systems, Emily adjusts the lighting and temperature. Before leaving for work Emily takes a shower controlled by a microchip timer and make her morning java via a smart coffee maker app.
Going off to work --- Emily hops into her electric car, where microchips control everything from the navigation system to the car’s battery management. Her commute is smooth and carefree thanks to the autonomous auto controls. She has time to do some prep on her laptop while commuting to the office.
At the office, Emily is part of a team designing robots for manufacturing --- revolutionizing the production line with their efficiency and precision. She marvels at how these tiny components have enabled advances from automation to artificial intelligence. Logging into her secure network, Emily is greeted by a dashboard of real-time data feeds --- each pointing to a pervasive role of cybersecurity in safeguarding her and the company’s systems and data. Focusing on the day to day needs of fortifying firewall, decrypting potential threats, and ensuring the sanctity of data Emily recognizes the relentless battle in the shadow against unseen adversaries. Emily’s work with smart technologies, guided by cybersecurity protocols, enable production miracles --- goods created with precision and efficiency previously unimaginable. Yet, a paradox not lost on Emily, recognizing that the very systems that propel this progress also make them targets for cyberattacks.
Sitting down for lunch she decides to video call her brother, halfway across the world, with a clarity that feels like he’s beside her. While conversing with her brother, outside the office window, drones buzz past, their cameras scanning the urban landscape. For a split moment, she marvels at the advanced surveillance technology, recognizing that it’s a double-edged sword – maintaining public safety but also raising questions around privacy in an age where every movement can be monitored.
At home in the evening, Emily unwinds by streaming her favorite show on the TV, fully appreciating her choice of entertainment at her fingertips. In her smart home Emily marvels at how she can control not only programs she is watching on TV but also all the lighting and her appliances with just a voice command.
You and I may not fit Emily’s lifestyle fully, nor fully appreciate how technological innovation shapes our lives daily? Yet, we can all easily relate to the technological benefits Emily uses daily.
Today’s Microchip Marketplace Politics
Taiwan being at the center of critical technology also plays a critical role in the struggle and conflict between the US and China over semiconductors. It not only has a huge share of the global semiconductor industry but also tensions are focused on the political status between Beijing and Washington. Semiconductors are produced by a remarkable global supply chain, with design often stemming from US, Japanese or European firms. The manufacturing is largely taking place in Taiwan and South Korea. However, Taiwan alone manufactures more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors --- and crucially, 90% of the most advanced ones. Should China invade Taiwan could mean a halt to the availability of the advanced chips used in satellites, stealth jets, supercomputers, etc.
Chipmakers are racing to manufacture not only the fastest chips but also paving the way for new smarter devices applications.
A new prototype microchip design was introduced by IBM in 2021 --- different type of Artificial Intelligence --- one that doesn’t rely on big cloud companies like Amazon or Google. IBM researched call it “Neural inference architecture that blurs this boundary by eliminating off-chip memory, intertwining compute with memory on-chip, and appearing externally as an active memory.” In simple terms, the memory for the device is on the chip itself, rather than connected separately with the ability to carry out Artificial Intelligence inferencing considerably faster than other chips already on the market.
How IBM will apply their innovative technology is still an unknown. They may develop a quantum workforce and quantum ecosystem to tackle the practical problems across various fields. Monetizing their innovative technology may evolve into --- partnerships, software and service systems sales, licensing, direct sales, education, etc.
This application will be disruptive in the marketplace --- but to what extent is uncertain at this time. Technological innovation is in perpetual destruction mode --- and we should never forget this. Today’s big winners may be tomorrow’s big losers.
Nvidia --- the current market darling --- unveiled the next generation of AI chips that could be four times faster than their previous H100 chip and conceivably cost $50,000 – double the original estimate. How it will sell is to be determined. We can’t forget --- Nvidia came to the brink of failure in its early years and has been whipsawed in recent years by the boom and bust in cryptocurrency mining, where its chips are also heavily used.
Part 2 --- To the Future will follow in a week.
John Vidas
March 2024