“It’s not artificial intelligence I’m worried about, it’s human stupidity.” --- Neil Jacobstein, Chairs the Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Track at Singularity University on the NASA Research Park campus in Mountain View, California.
Billionaire Elon Musk has long warned of the perils of unfettered AI development --- “AI is far more dangerous than nuclear warheads”.
At a TechSurge conference, John Hennessy, Silicon Valley pioneer and former Stanford president was quoted, --- “It’s awakened in everybody a sense that maybe the singularity … this turning point where computers really are more capable than humans, is closer than we thought.”
A simple explanation of Artificial Intelligence: --- A branch of Data Science that focuses on building smart machines capable of performing a wide range of tasks that usually require human intelligence and cognition. These intelligent machines are imbued with learning from experience and historical data, analyzing their surrounding environments, and performing befitting actions.
Looking back a century; --- In 1907, Henry Ford and his staff devised a system that reduced the overall assembly time on a Model T from 12.5 hours to 93 minutes using approximately 1480 parts – an impressive 87.6% production time reduction. Today, a Toyota RAV4 -- as an example, needs in excess of 30,000 parts --- plus complex assembly components --- producing one vehicle every 45-90 seconds. AI is largely responsible for the in-time production process.
Human Intelligence refers to humans’ intellectual capability that allows us to think, learn from different experiences, understand complex concepts, apply logic and reason, solve mathematical problems, recognize patterns, make inferences and decisions, retain information, and communicate with fellow human beings.
What makes human intelligence unique is that it is backed by abstract emotions like self-awareness, passion, and motivation that enable humans to accomplish complex cognitive tasks. Human intelligence is not constricted to a particular pattern but can be changed depending upon the problems that arise with it. It can change substantially with the crux of the situation.
Considering that AI is highly advanced --- machines learning from experience and making smart decisions (such as in the car assembly noted above) --- AI cannot function optimally without relying on the innately human attributes like human intuition. It is the lack of understanding peculiarities and relationship where machine learning is currently devoid.
New Supercomputer with a 1 million processor is the world’s fastest Brain-Mimicking Machine --- dubbed -- Spiking Neural Network Architecture --- located in the University of Manchester. Steve Fuber, professor of computer engineering stated ---“With its computing power and brain-like capabilities, it can still manage only a fraction of the communication performed by a human brain and supercomputers have a long way to go before they can think for themselves.”
I love technology --- and what it has and can do for us into the future. Not to dwell on the minutia of all the possible AI technological advances nor the potential downfalls, I’m just barely scratch the surface of what is being referred to as the --- Onset of the New Industrial Revolution.
A look back and today: --- Thirty years ago, I spent a lot of time analyzing markets, economics outcomes, and relative political implications in local libraries --- such as the Downtown Vancouver Library and the UBC Library (great sources of information even today). Using the AI based functionality today, --- (Neutral Networks --- algorithms that readily access integrated systems performing much deeper analytics and a faster process to analyze transactions history, understand asset movement with improved predictable financial outcomes), is readily available in minutes. However, you still need human input to interpret and effectively apply the results.
There are two types of Artificial Intelligence;
Weak --- where machines weigh the consequences of any action taken and how each action will impact the end result --- such as in financial/market analysis -- (indicated above) --- playing chess, personal assistants such as Amazon’s Alexa or Apple’s Siri, etc.
Strong --- Complex and complicated systems that carry on the tasks considered to be human-like. Programmed to handle situations requiring problem solving without having a person intervene. To name a few, include self-driving cars or airplanes, hospital operating rooms, face recognition, drones, etc.
Yes, there is a Negative Side
According to Cyber Crime Magazine --- in 2021 it was estimated that Cyber Crime exceeded 6 trillion dollars (Consider this is currently the third largest economy behind the US and China) and it is estimated that by 2025 that number will exceed 10.5 trillion dollars.
Using one example; --- United Nations reported, ---“North Korea generates an estimated $2 billion for its weapons of mass destruction program using widespread and increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks to steal from banks, cryptocurrency exchanges, and individuals.”
The obvious message is that many individuals, corporations and governments are not as yet paying attention. A simple lack of focus on examining --- the Who, What, Where, Why, and When?
Surveillance; --- report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, author Steven Feldstein found, ---“75 out of 176 countries globally are actively using AI technologies for surveillance purposes, including smart city/safe city platforms now used in 56 countries, facial recognition systems being used by 64 countries, and smart policing now used by law enforcement in 52 countries.” . Understandably in democratically established countries facial recognition AI is used to ensure safety. In China facial recognition is used to ration toilet paper, to name and shame jaywalkers, and to outfit police with glasses to help them find suspects. Let’s not get too comfortable and underestimate autocrats and politicians, in democratic countries, with a strong dictatorial bent that purport to know what is best for us and have no compunction at trampling our basic human rights.
Without sounding conspiratorial --- governments and corporations collect and have access to massive and sensitive personal information (which we readily give them). Think of how easily your basic human right to privacy can be trampled through misuse, hacking, and malicious intent.
Another consideration: ---- How our shifting human experience will continue to reduce the amount of time we spend on tasks and work in general? This may be a blessing for some --- new personal and economic opportunities and avenues to explore. As Ford’s production line brought time saving benefits to the car building and automation process, it also considerably reduced the artisan to a repetitive production line worker (At least giving the worker time --- in years --- to adjust). Navigating through the fast paced and changing AI environment, there are far reaching human, social, and economic benefits we haven’t even contemplated as yet. We need to do this right --- or it will be costly socially, mentally and economically.
Investing in generative AI as it relates to ChatGPT, Bard, Bing, and potential new offerings:
The --- “Father of the internet” and Google “internet evangelist” Vint Cerf, --- recently warned entrepreneurs not to rush into making money from conversational AI just “because it’s really cool.” Cerf said the technology is not advanced enough to place near-term bets. “There’s an ethical issue here that I hope some of you will consider,” he told a conference before pleading with the crowd.
So you know: This Blog was not sourced through ChatGPT. Just for fun --- I asked Chat GPT a variety of questions related to a subject I’m well versed in. The long and short of it --- totally disappointed at the replies offered. However, when talking to others who have used ChatGPT they have experienced some modicum of success – but limited. I make no further judgement at this time.
If you want to be entertained – Ryan sent me a video from YouTube, where ChatGPT plays the best chess computer in the world. We can’t link directly to the video here, but it is on the channel GothamChess called “ChatGPT Just Beat Chess” (screenshot below) Very entertaining!
Generative artificial intelligence can revolutionize and simplify mundane processes when applied to interpersonal interactions, business models, and the delivery of public services especially in education, finance, and technology disciplines. The danger is using sites, such as ChatGPT, Bard and Bing, where secondhand information is pieced together and presented with human-like and authoritative tone. If the information is false, users who aren’t sufficiently well-versed in a subject can easily be deceived and can potentially spread harmful and wrong messages.
The advancement and application of Autonomous Systems will necessitate fairness, transparency, and accountability, --- free of bias and respect the privacy of people it affects. It will need to be enshrined at corporate and government levels. Artificial Intelligence will considerably increase the speed of what can be accomplished, however, increasingly our human ability to follow along and adjust to the pace of change will equally need to keep up.
Cheers,
John Vidas
February 2023