History can rhyme. What about this time?

Oct 08, 2020 | Jeremy Goldfarb


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I have been fielding quite a few questions about what the market is going to do headed into the upcoming US Presidential election, and while I don't have a crystal ball, I can share with you some thoughts. Most have heard the expression that history may not repeat itself, but it most certainly can rhyme (or some variation of that). With that being said, I would like to turn your attention to the chart below (thanks again RBC GAM), and point out something that stood out to me. 

 

You will notice that the SP500 has typically exhibited positive returns in October leading up to a presidential election. Over the past 90+ years or so, October has been positive 74% of the time. The exceptions however stood out to me: 

  • great depression 
  • global financing crisis

We are in the midst of a unique event historically as it relates to the economy. Will this October follow those previous patterns........?