This was not in the playbook

Mar 11, 2020 | Jeremy Goldfarb


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For any money manager, retail or otherwise, December 2019 must seem like years ago. Headed into the end of the year, bright eyed and bushy tailed on the heels of a really nice comeback year for many of the major averages. New index related ETFs were popping up everywhere, and there was an enormous push from self directed platforms. Do you know when the last time I saw all of this happen......2017. That's right....the year where every major asset class, with the exception of fixed income, took off like a rocket along with things like bitcoin and Cannabis and.........

 

So here we are and it's closing time on March 11 2020, and most of the major averages have given back all of 2019. Some even more than that. I hearken back to the 2020 outlook calls from earlier this year where I heard almost identical forecasts across the board. Summarized neatly, it will not be another 2019 (that can't happen), but it will still be good. Returns should fall somewhere in the high single digit range, to the low double digit range. Concerns abound regarding US-China trade, and the upcoming US election (remember those risks?), but otherwise, the economic fundamentals remained sound. Not a lick of recession warning on the horizon, but the bull market was getting a little long in the tooth.

 

So here we are......Bear Market on the DJIA, a virus running around the globe like it's chasing the triple crown, and a fight between unreasonable oil powers to top things off.

 

I read reports every day for you. I listen to analysts across multiple institutions and platforms for you. Nobody had this in their playbook. If you encounter a professional in the money management business who hints otherwise......run in the other direction.