If we only had the flux capacitor....

Dec 16, 2019 | Jeremy Goldfarb


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We wouldn't be so wrong so often. The CNBC survey consensus forecast for 2020 stock market returns is mid-high single digits. Historically speaking that is the "average" rate of return, and it is also wrong 93% of the time.

 

If you are looking for thematic calls within the noise, the common prediction is that overseas markets will outperform US markets (This is also the RBC Global Asset management position if you read 2020 Global insight outlook).

 

There are certainly some interesting historical tendencies when we reflect how markets perform on the heels of robust return years, but I will leave this article here to explain that. Forecasting is always interesting, but it most often wrong.

 

How do you think things will play out?