When markets fall - a historical view

April 20, 2022 | Jeremy Goldfarb


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The first quarter of 2022 has been loaded with volatility, uncertainty, and maybe a few more "ty" words I can't come up with right now. What does history tell us about what to expect next though? I have no doubt, that the discomfort will continue, but to see where we may end up, let's have a look at the past 20 years, and what the SP500 has done, on the heels of a poor (negative) quarterly performance. 

In the chart above, we see all of the negative quarters over the past 20 years (more of those than you thought?) from the worst cases at the top, to the "least damaging but still negative" at the bottom. You will see that even in the past 4 years, we still have unanswered questions, however the overwhelming majority of occurrences have seen markets perform well on the back of a poor quarter. Perhaps this means nothing, but it would certainly be helpful if this trend were to continue. 

 

 

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