Insights

US labour market data ended 2023 with strength. Payroll employment was up 216k in December while the unemployment rate held at 3.7% after declining to that level the prior month. As was the case for much of the year, the employment gain in December was...

The December labour market data was mixed, but on balance adds to evidence that economic activity remained soft through Q4. Employment was essentially unchanged in December, the softest reading since a 6k decline last July. And the unemployment rate held...

US headline inflation ticked down to 3.1% in November from 3.2% in October. Food and energy inflation both eased while core ex-food and energy inflation was little changed at 4%. Lower gasoline prices in November pushed energy inflation down further to...

Retail sales ticked up in November in the midst of the holiday shopping period. Even after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales (excluding autos) were tracking an increase relative to October. Clothing stores and gasoline were responsible for the...

Most of the drop in Canadian headline CPI growth to 3.1% year over year in October (just a touch above Bank of Canada’s 1% - 3% inflation target range) came from a 4.5% month over month decline in gasoline prices. That decline also pushed year-over-year...

Fall market stuck in a low gear across Canada

In line with our and market’s expectations, the Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to hold the overnight rate steady at 5% at today’s meeting, extending a pause after also foregoing a hike in September. The central bank (also as expected) maintained a clear hiking...

The most striking trend that emerged in recent months has been the return of sellers to the housing market. September was a case in point where new listings increased sequentially in all major markets (for which early reports from local real estate boards...

Higher prices at the pump pushed Canadian headline inflation rate up. Food costs are still high but growing at a slower pace. Mortgage interest costs continue to drive a disproportionate share of headline price growth. But the Bank of Canada’s preferred...