Good morning from beautiful Mont-Sainte-Anne.

Nothing quite like a ten-hour drive with three kids under twelve to remind you how unpredictable life can be, and how little control we often have over what lies ahead.

March Break has a way of doing that….but uncertainty isn’t limited to family road trips. It shows up in markets too.

Before we dive into some thoughts, I wanted to share some exciting news.

As we cruise into the week, today we welcomed Billy Young to the Henderson Family Wealth team! Adding thoughtful people to the table is one of the most important investments any advisory practice can make. Billy brings curiosity, discipline, and a genuine commitment to helping families think clearly about their financial decisions. Sage advice rarely comes from a single voice….it comes from a team that shares the same principles — clarity, patience, and long-term stewardship.

Which brings me to a story that’s been told for generations.

The Captain in the Fog

There’s an old story about a captain navigating the North Atlantic.

One night a thick fog rolled in so quickly that the horizon disappeared within minutes. The sea grew strangely quiet. The stars vanished. The ship moved forward through a world reduced to a few hundred yards of grey water and mist.

On deck, the young navigator began to feel uneasy. Without stars or landmarks the ocean suddenly felt enormous and unknowable. After watching the compass for a while he finally turned to the captain.

“Should we slow down until we can see farther?”

The captain didn’t answer immediately. He checked the instruments, adjusted the wheel slightly, and let the ship settle back into its steady rhythm.

“We already know where we’re going,” he said calmly.

“But we can’t see the path,” the navigator replied.

The captain smiled. “You rarely can.” He tapped the instruments beside him.

“The compass still works…the charts still work..the engine still works.”

Then he looked back out into the fog.

“The mistake sailors make in fog isn’t that they can’t see. It’s that they stop trusting the tools that got them this far.”

And with that, the ship continued forward. Not recklessly. Not blindly. Just steadily, guided by the same instruments that had carried them safely across thousands of miles of ocean long before the fog arrived.

Every sailor eventually encounters fog.

The horizon disappears. Familiar markers vanish. The distance ahead feels unknowable.

Lately, the world has felt a little like that.

The World Feels Loud Again

The conflict involving Iran has introduced another layer of uncertainty into an already complicated global landscape.

Markets have responded quickly, particularly through energy.

Iran produces roughly three million barrels of oil per day, but the larger concern is geography. The Strait of Hormuz carries nearly twenty percent of the world’s oil and gas supply, making it one of the most important energy corridors on the planet. When that narrow passage becomes uncertain, the entire global economy pays attention.

Oil prices have moved sharply in response.

And yet beneath the headlines, markets are telling a more nuanced story.

What Markets Are Actually Saying

Despite the intensity of the headlines, markets have remained relatively orderly.

Since late February:

• The S&P 500 has declined modestly
• European markets have pulled back more noticeably
• Japanese equities have experienced deeper volatility
• Emerging markets have also softened

Markets geographically closer to the conflict have understandably felt more pressure.

Meanwhile, one sector has moved in the opposite direction.

Energy.

Higher oil prices have pushed the energy sector significantly higher this year, making it one of the strongest performers in global markets so far.

That’s often how markets respond to geopolitical shocks.

Some sectors struggle. Others benefit. Capital rotates rather than disappears.

Periods like this often feel uncomfortable in the moment. But historically, they are also when the seeds of future opportunity are quietly planted.

Volatility doesn’t create risk….it reveals where it was hiding.

Strong businesses can temporarily trade as though they share the same uncertainty as weaker ones. Long-term investors who remain disciplined during these periods sometimes find themselves able to allocate capital into quality assets at more reasonable prices.

Volatility rarely creates opportunity….it simply reveals it to those patient enough to wait.

History’s Quiet Reminder

Looking back across more than forty geopolitical conflicts since World War II, the median stock-market response has actually been relatively muted. In many cases markets stabilize within weeks, even while the conflict itself continues.

Markets do not wait for peace.

They wait for visibility.

Another Current Beneath the Surface

While geopolitical headlines dominate the moment, another structural force continues reshaping markets quietly in the background.

Artificial intelligence.

One interesting shift in market leadership has been toward what investors are calling HALO companies — businesses with Hard Assets and Low Obsolescence.

Energy infrastructure.

Power grids.

Semiconductor fabrication.

Transportation networks.

For years markets were captivated by intangible platforms. Now investors are rediscovering something simpler.

Ideas still require foundations.

So do economies.

So do lives.

A Few Questions for Families, Owners, and Entrepreneurs

For families and entrepreneurs responsible for capital, moments like this are less about reacting and more about thinking clearly.

Periods of uncertainty have a way of forcing us back to first principles.

• Are we reacting to headlines, or following a process we trust?
• Do we understand the businesses and assets we own well enough to remain calm when prices move?
• Have we built plans that bend with uncertainty rather than depend on perfect forecasts?
• Are we allocating our time, energy, and capital toward things that truly compound?
• And perhaps most importantly — are we allowing short-term volatility to distort long-term thinking?

These questions matter in markets, but they matter even more in leadership.

Because in the end, capital tends to follow clarity.

A Reflection for the Morning

Life rarely offers perfect visibility.

Sometimes the horizon disappears. Sometimes the fog rolls in. Markets move, headlines shift, and uncertainty rises.

In moments like these, brilliance isn’t required.

Steadiness is.

Most fortunes are not built in moments of certainty. They are built by those who remain steady when certainty disappears.

The storm may not be ours to control. But the compass still works.

And if we trust it — and keep our hands steady on the wheel — it will usually guide us safely through the fog.

Have a wonderful week. Be well and enjoy the moments,

Derek Henderson