Perspective | The Island of the Rising Tariff

May 20, 2025 | G. Derek Henderson


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“You can’t stop the waves, but you can learn to surf.” - Jon Kabat-Zinn

How Surfboards, Mangoes, and Market History Remind Us What Really Builds Wealth

There was once a small island, home to two proud tribes: the Builders and the Growers. The Builders shaped surfboards…sleek, strong, lovingly handcrafted. The Growers harvested golden mangoes….sweet, abundant, shared at every meal. For years, trade flowed. Life was simple and full of rhythm.

Then came the shift.

A neighboring island began exporting surfboards - sleeker, cheaper, faster. Islanders rejoiced. They surfed more, spent less, and redirected their savings into homes, music, and mangoes. But the Builders grew anxious. Sales fell. Their pride was bruised. They petitioned the council to impose a wave protection fee - a tariff on foreign boards. The council agreed. “Support local,” they said. “Protect our way of life.”

Foreign boards became expensive. Local boards regained market share. The Builders cheered but beneath the surface, the current changed.

Surfers paid more. Mango sales fell. Music faded. A few jobs were saved—but many small opportunities disappeared. Progress slowed. Innovation dulled.

The island hadn’t protected prosperity. It had simply redistributed pain.

Today’s Parallel: Tariffs and Tensions on the Rise

Last Wednesday, the U.S. administration announced sweeping tariffs, 10% on all imports, with higher duties on goods from dozens of countries. The average U.S. tariff rate now exceeds 23%, a sharp jump from just 2% earlier this year.

Markets reacted, bond yields fell, and the U.S. dollar showed weakness, while currencies like the euro and Canadian dollar gained strength.

The U.S. stock market bore the brunt of the weakness, continuing a trend that’s been in place this year, and we are seeing more weakness across markets this morning. Technology and industrial sectors are particularly weak as investors are increasingly questioning the resilience of the U.S. economy and the growth expectations embedded in its stock market. The Canadian market has been faring a tad better, with bank stocks demonstrating some resilience, helping to offset some of the weakness from the Energy sector here at home. Overseas equity markets were also lower, albeit to a lesser degree.

Today is setting up to be another day busy day as global risk off has spilled over from last week, as comments from Trump and his administration over the weekend show no meaningful interest in backing down on tariff policy.

Why does this matter?

Because history reminds us: when we try to protect the past, we often pay for it with the future. Tariffs rarely build, they burden, but here’s where perspective becomes powerful.

Markets Bend, Not Break: A History of Resilience

Tariffs. Wars. Recessions. Crashes. Pandemics. In the moment, each feels like the end of the story, but it never is because every downturn writes a new chapter of recovery.

I thought we’d take a look at four major market downturns, and the recoveries that followed:

Black Monday (1987) - On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a significant drop of 22.61%, marking the largest single-day percentage decline in its history.

Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009) - Between October 2007 and March 2009, the S&P 500 declined by approximately 56.8%. However, the market began a recovery thereafter, with significant gains in subsequent years.

Dot-Com Bubble (2000–2002) - The bursting of the dot-com bubble led to a substantial decline in the S&P 500, with the index falling from its peak in March 2000 to a low in October 2002. The recovery took several years, with the index reaching new highs in subsequent periods.

COVID-19 Pandemic Crash (2020) - In early 2020, the S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic but rebounded quickly, reaching new highs within months.

Crisis

Drawdown

1-Year Return

Black Monday (1987)

-33.5%

+21.4%

Global Financial Crisis

-56.8%

+68.6%

COVID Crash (2020)

-33.9%

+56.3%

Dot-Com Bust (2000–2002)

-49.1%

+30.2%

Each time, the market faced uncertainty. Each time, it found a way forward.

Why?

Because economies adapt, people innovate, capital flows, and the world turns. Panic has a price, but it’s important to remember that patience has a premium. As Buffet once said, “the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

Planning Through Volatility: Why Intention Wins

The lesson isn't just economic, it's personal. We don’t design portfolios around predictions. We design them around principles:

  • Diversification over concentration
  • Discipline over reaction
  • Intention over impulse

As investors, we remember that this uncertainty is not the enemy of wealth, it’s the very reason returns exist. If everything were guaranteed, there’d be no reward for staying the course. But these moments, the unsettling, noisy, confusing ones, are exactly when the plan proves its worth.

What We’re Doing Now

As we cruise into the week, we’re monitoring developments closely, but not emotionally. As you continue to absorb the news and the noise, it’s the plan that assumes times like these will come, and it’s the strategy that enables opportunity amid uncertainty, one that is built to bend, not break. As we head into the week, whether you’re trying to understand the impact of the tariffs on your business strategy, your job, or your family, remember that resilience isn’t reactive, it’s intentional.

So let the storm pass. Stay steady. Stay focused. And don’t lose sight of the mangoes and the waves, because the waves of opportunity are found in the biggest storms.

Be well and enjoy the moments,

Derek Henderson