Good mornin’,

It's wild to think that we're still just in March, given how eventful these past weeks have been. For many of us here in Canada we are waking up to the first day of March break with these kiddos, and it’s the first day with Mark Carney as Prime Minster.

As many of you dive into March break, it's impossible to overlook that this time of year often brings unforgettable moments, along with a dose of unpredictability. It's hard to believe it’s only been two years since Silicon Valley Bank fell, marking a significant bank failure in U.S. history. Let's hope for less drama this week, though with the past few as our backdrop, it seems a tall order. With the U.S. administration's policy moves reshaping the landscape, this year is already proving to be intense.

I’m sure we are all “tariffed-out” by now, yet the current U.S. tariff policies are as cryptic as a half-written fortune cookie. Without clarity on Trump’s motives and intensions, businesses and investors find themselves in a high-stakes session of road trip game of "Guess Who?"—but with livelihoods on the line.

Tariffs aren’t just economic instruments; they’re like enigmatic tweets everyone scrambles to decipher. The lack of transparency breeds hesitation, halting long-term investments and expansions, leaving strategies hanging in uncertainty. Globally, this uncertainty ripples through economies, straining diplomatic ties and disrupting trade.

The Productivity Paradox

Today marks another milestone in Canadian history—on this day in 1876, Alexander Graham Bell made the first successful telephone call, a landmark for innovation that significantly boosted Canadian productivity. Yet, here we are, facing a productivity paradox. Despite Canada's rich resources and skilled workforce, we're lagging behind peers in productivity growth and innovation. This gap jeopardizes our economic potential, a pressing issue acknowledged by policymakers like Carolyn Rogers of the Bank of Canada. A recent report from our friends at BDO sighted the OECD forecasts Canada as the worst-performing advanced nation over the coming decades in terms of real GDP per capita. YIKES!

The tariff dispute between Canada and the U.S. exacerbates this threat to productivity, expected to disrupt supply chains and inflate costs. This underscores the urgent need for businesses to boost productivity and resilience. The Bank of Canada's upcoming interest rate decision is anticipated to be close, with potential influences from U.S. trade risks. Trade risks linger. Steel and aluminum tariffs loom, with broader measures expected in April, shrouding U.S. trade policy in uncertainty and threatening Canadian business investment recovery.

Opportunity Through Intention

To be certain, the markets around the globe feed on predictability and confidence, yet foggy policy intentions stifle growth. As we look forward it’s difficult for us to understand US policy intention and we are seeing investor sentiment indexes reveal growing bearish views. For investors, what’s next? While short-term respite is possible given recent tariff pauses, the specter of a prolonged trade war demands caution and reflection. Yes, we need to step back and focus on controlling the controllables. For those of us actively positioning portfolios it’s a busy and stirring March break – for those taking a much deserved break this week, it’s an opportune time to reflect on your own planning, and your own intentions.

The Intention Tension

Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, "The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be." Amidst this chaos, it is tough to decode others’ intentions, underscoring the need to focus on understanding our own.

Intention is a subtle yet powerful force, shaping every decision and perception. It's the internal compass guiding us, influencing reality, even in everyday routines.

Yet, we all falter. The intention gap—the chasm between what we aspire to do and what we actually accomplish—trips us, it’s like those New Year’s resolutions gone by February. This disconnect is less about laziness, and more a blend of psychological, emotional, and environmental hurdles. It’s difficult to follow through, to bridge that gap from intention to action….why?

Well, there’s several reasons….here’s a few

• Lack of Clarity: Vague intentions lead to vague results.
• Cognitive Overload: Daily multitasking dilutes focus.
• Emotional Resistance: Fear and self-doubt create internal roadblocks.
• Immediate Gratification vs. Long-term Rewards: Instant rewards overshadow delayed goals.
• Lack of Accountability: Without accountability, intentions often slip.

Closing the intention gap requires more than just motivation—it takes both strategy and structure. As we head into the week, here are a few ways to follow through on your intentions:

Make Your Goals Specific and Actionable: Instead of vague goals, define exactly what you want to do and how you’ll do it.

Create Systems, Not Just Goals: Habits and systems are more powerful than motivation. If you want to read more books, set a daily reminder, keep a book near your bed, and replace 10 minutes of social media with reading.

Reduce Friction: Make the right choices easy. If you want to work out in the morning, lay out your gym clothes the night before. If you want to eat healthier, remove junk food from your house.

Use External Accountability: Tell a friend about your goal, join a group, or work with a coach. When you know someone is expecting results, you’re more likely to follow through.

And, the most important one to remember --- Celebrate Small Wins

The intention gap isn't due to a lack of desire but it’s the obstacles that get in our way. By refocusing on clarity, reducing friction, and seeking accountability, we better align actions with intentions.

Buddha wisely said, "The mind is everything. What you think you become."

So, enjoy the week this week, take a step back and reflect….what small step can you take today to close your intention gap?

Be well and enjoy the moments,

G. Derek Henderson