Hey there, morning!

Yes, I do usually send these Morning Musings out on Monday…..I promise it wasn’t due to procrastination, rather, it seems my house has been plagued by the “back to school sickness” for the last few weeks. I trust everyone’s enjoying kids being back to school as much as I am, despite the germs these kids seem to carry with them everywhere they go. 

Procrastination…the act of delaying or avoiding important matters due to some fear, laziness or, as my associate Kathlina reminded me, the feelings that come with the task.

Well, most of you reading have an enterprising mindset, we know you are not lazy! So, most of the time, our procrastination stems from more than just not wanting to do something, but from something much deeper. One side of procrastination requires reflection and a confrontation of your inner self. While it’s important to understand the underlying causes, the other side of this is that we need to find a system that helps us get into the rhythm of the tasks in front of us and more routinely get in the groove of overcoming our initial apprehensions.

One solution is to breakdown something seemingly large and daunting into small, achievable steps and goals – something I refer to as milestones. It may help to alternate each milestone with another unrelated task…..break it up a bit, it helps you stay focused and maintain your rhythms. Another idea, or way to confront this is to schedule time for yourself in you day. It may seem simple, but this can be extremely effective and something I started to implement myself a few years ago (admittedly difficult to protect this time). It’s a simple gesture, knowing that for one hour, our attention is constrained to one thing can help direct our focus. This will be different for everyone, but every attempt to become more mindful and productive with our days, and our moments, is progress.

“Only put off until tomorrow what you are willing to die having left undone” - Pablo Picasso

Procrastination VS Productivity

The key to productivity is doing more of what matters and less of what doesn't. When you concentrate your mental and physical energy in one direction, you have the most impact.

One way to reduce the surface area of your attention is to ask yourself the difficult question of whether what you are doing really matters to the outcome you want. If you are ruthless, you can eliminate 20-40% of what you are doing today without impacting the most important things.

All the time you spend on the least important things comes at the expense of the most important things.

Asking the question is easier than answering it honestly. Admitting you're doing something that doesn't matter means you've been wasting your time. It's much easier to keep doing what we've been doing and tell ourselves that if we just had one more productivity hack, we'd make more progress.

Being busy and being productive are not the same thing. Running around in circles is busy. Going toward your destination is productive. It's easy to be busy. It's hard to be productive.

The real "work" of productivity is less about improving efficiency and more about improving effectiveness.

Being productive is not about doing more; it's about concentrating all your energy on the few things that matter.

“My advice is to never do tomorrow what you can do today. Procrastination is the thief of time.”– Charles Dickens

Here are some ideas for you to take with you as you work on your procrastination and productivity:

1. Continually ask: ‘how can I do more with less? Then apply your answers to your life
2. Be ruthlessly intolerant to multitasking. Do one thing at a time. Trying to do more than one thing at a time massively decreases your effectiveness at any one thing.
3. Write your goals down every day. The act of physically writing them, whether short-term ‘process’ goals like writing daily or longer-term goals, cements them in your awareness.
4. Prioritize enjoyment. You can’t outwork someone who is enjoying themselves. The most in-flow productive people find a way to enjoy what they’re doing, no matter what.
5. Identify a purpose. Purpose is something you must create. Why are you doing what you’re doing? You are less likely to find excuses with a strong, written-down reason.
6. Love boredom. Most people have little focus because they hate feeling bored. If you can experience boredom and stay with it until creative insight follows, you’re ahead of the game.
7. Have a routine. Like with purpose, you design your ideal routine based on what works for you. What will you do most days, at specific times, without distraction that ensures you’re focused?

Finally, if you forget all of this, do this: One thing at a time with enjoyment.

 

And now, to the Markets

Global equity markets have given back some of their year-to-date gains so far in September while government bond yields have moved noticeably higher in recent weeks. The market action can be attributed to mixed economic signals and messaging from central banks. On the latter, the Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve both decided to hold rates steady at recent policy meetings, while the European Central Bank raised rates yet again. All three emphasized the need to tread carefully as they try to ensure interest rates stay high enough for long enough to stem inflationary pressures. Recent inflation readings in Canada and the US suggest pricing pressures have begun to perk up, driven in part by oil prices. We discuss oil in more detail below.

Crude oil and refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel have all been on a sharp upward trajectory since June and are trading near highs for the year. Global demand and supply have both been responsible for the price gains in recent months.

Demand has been stronger than expected, driven by a more resilient economy, particularly in the U.S. where the summer travel season was notably strong. Demand in other parts of the world, like Latin America and Africa has also been stronger than expected. And, while China’s economic recovery following its reopening earlier this year has underwhelmed, its crude oil imports through the first half of the year have set a record pace, with much of it being deployed into the country’s oil inventories for future use. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that roughly three quarters of the increase in world energy demand this year is expected to be driven by China.

The supply side of the equation has been as impactful. Over the past month, Saudi Arabia and Russia – the world’s biggest crude oil exporters and second and third largest producers, respectively – said they would extend their production cuts to the end of the year. Most market participants see this as a resolve to maintain higher oil prices, while Saudi Arabia has countered that sustainability of global demand is uncertain, and the country is merely tempering production to avoid oversupply.

Historically, the supply and demand imbalances that have created elevated oil prices often resolved themselves over time. Demand has typically deteriorated when prices are elevated as consumers look to moderate the impact of higher costs. Meanwhile, oil producers have predictably raised production at more profitable price levels in the past, leading to increased global supply. Lower demand, increased supply, or a combination of both have driven prices lower in prior periods.

We expect global oil demand to moderate over time as higher prices and slowing economic activity eventually take their toll. We have less conviction on the supply side where there has been a notable shift in recent years with oil companies demonstrating more discipline and patience. They have been less willing to raise production at higher prices and have clearly prioritized profitability over revenue growth. Moreover, major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia appear intent on maintaining elevated prices for the foreseeable future, although predicting their approach from one year to the next has been fraught with challenges.

High oil prices present a headwind to inflation, which had been on a downward trajectory for most of the year until recently. This is yet another challenge for central banks, who remain steadfast in their focus on ensuring inflation can move lower and back to their long-term targets. We expect global markets will remain hyper focused on inflation through the rest of the year.

“A day can really slip by when you're deliberately avoiding what you're supposed to do.” ― Bill Watterson

Alive time or Dead time?

I was reading a note from author Ryan Holiday on the weekend, discussing our use of time…….Robert Greene once told him there were two types of time in life: Alive time and Dead time.

“One is when you sit around when you wait until things happen to you. The other is when you are using that time productively, actively. You’re stuck at the airport–you don’t control that. You decide whether it’s alive time or dead time (you read a book, you take a walk, you call your grandmother).

As you investigate the day ahead, and the week in front of you ----- how are you spending your time alive time?

Be well & enjoy the moments.

Derek