“Today is the greatest, day I've ever known” Smashing Pumpkins
Good morning,
Happy Halloween Monday!
I’m sure the weekend was full of Halloween festivities….decorating, pumpkin carving and treat eating.
Halloween, like all other opportunities when we find to spend time with our children, our family, our neighbors, and our community…are much more than just enjoyable moments. It’s this time we spend with each other that provides purpose, meaning and can lend to our longevity.
True wealth is realized through impactful relationships
If we take time to step back and observe our life’s milestones and achievements, it can all be attributed to our relationships. Whether it be your family, friends, colleagues, partners, peers or your community, those around you have played vital role in your journey…your happiness, your success and your wellbeing.
Wellbeing
We all understand that our diet, exercise, and sleep are certainly three important elements that factor into our wellbeing and our longevity. Of course, establishing stablishing healthy habits and discipline are foundational for us to feel well, be happy and pursue our goals. It’s typically sleep, diet and exercise that are the first things that come to mind when thinking of health, but studies show there's something even more important, a fourth element that should be also the focus of our intention.
Your relationships
At least that's the conclusion from the Harvard study of adult development, a study that began in the 1930s and continues to be conducted today. For 75 years the study has observed 724 subjects from different backgrounds, one group composed of Harvard students, and the other group underprivileged from Boston's inner city. After decades of research, tracking subjects, conducting interviews, reviewing medical records, the focus of the study is to determine what factors resulted in health, happiness, and longevity. It wasn't money, success, or a healthy cholesterol level at age 50 that best predicted good health and happiness at age 80. Instead, it was how satisfied they were with their relationships. Being more socially connected to family, friends, and community led to happier, healthier people….who lived longer.
Relationship can lead to happiness that makes sense ---- but our health, our longevity??
The Roseto effect - another example of the remarkable power of relationships and community on health and longevity. Roseto is a small town in northeastern Pennsylvania, in the 1960s, a local doctor realized there was an exceptionally low rate of heart disease in Roseto. It was noted that the community of Roseto were not exactly health conscious……”the inhabitants smoked cigars, drank lots of wine, and ate meatballs, sausage, and plenty of cheese, while being exposed to potentially toxic gases and dust in the slate quarries”. The residence of Roseto were eating more than some candy on Halloween, but it’s been studied over and over again, to understand how this community is so healthy. The studies note, the community was extremely close-knit. There was no crime; people supported each other, and meals were a reason to get together and celebrate. There was a strong work ethic, with everyone in town working toward a similar goal: a better life for their children. Their children did go on to have more material things and traditional success, but not necessarily better lives. As the supportive community began to break down, the rates of heart disease and premature death increased, equaling the rates of the surrounding towns.
The people of Roseto immersed themselves in a lifestyle with an emphasis on close, supportive relationships that appears to have protected them from chronic disease and is similar to the way of life along the Mediterranean. We’ve all heard of the Mediterranean diet, considered to be one of the healthiest in the world, but many scientist add that the Mediterranean lifestyle, not just the diet, contributes to cultivating good health, happiness, and longevity. What does this tell us…? Developing healthy habits around exercise, sleep and diet are important, but just as important is the health of our relationships with our family, our friends and our community……these require our intention and our presence and our complete awareness to ensure we are enjoying our moments alongside them.
As hectic and busy life can become around us, we need to become more mindful and enjoy our moments. As Nanette Mathews mentions, “if you’re always racing to the next moment, what happens to the one you’re in? Slow down and enjoy the moment you’re in and live your life to the fullest.”
Living in the moment means not waiting for the future, it means living your life consciously, aware that each moment you breathe is a gift and sometimes the little things were the best parts of life, and they were always there in front of us, waiting to be noticed.
“Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment.” Buddha
And now, to the markets
It has been a rather eventful few weeks, with third quarter earnings results and central bank policy, yet again, driving much of the market narrative. These developments weren’t outright positives. But, weighed against rather downbeat expectations and nearly unanimous negative investor sentiment, the news served to act as a bit of a catalyst, leading to some gains across most global equity and bond markets recently.
The Bank of Canada unveiled its latest interest rate decision over the past week. It raised its overnight rate for the sixth time this year, bringing the target to 3.75%. The 0.5% increase, which is still sizeable by historical standards, was less than the 0.75% that was expected by many investors. Moreover, it was less than the preceding two interest rate hikes of 0.75% and 1.00% delivered in September and July, respectively. In some ways, the Bank of Canada had suggested this would be the case not too long ago when it indicated its pace of rate tightening would eventually moderate. It appears that time has come, although it cautioned it expects its policy rate will still “need to rise further”.
Not too surprisingly, Canadian bond and equity prices responded favorably, as there is a growing sense that monetary policy may be transitioning to a phase where central banks are more patient and gradual with their actions. Interestingly, global investors were paying particular attention to the Bank of Canada because it had been one of the first central banks to act so forcefully earlier this year in an effort to tighten financial conditions. Global investors hope other central banks may follow in its footsteps and slow the pace of tightening. Notably, the European Central Bank, which only began to raise rates this past summer, raised its policy rate by 0.75% in recent days.
The other noteworthy development of late has been on the earnings front with companies reporting third quarter results in recent weeks. It’s fair to say it’s been a mixed bag. On the negative side, the large “mega cap” technology companies generally disappointed relative to most expectations. As always, some issues were company specific in nature. But, generally speaking, the forward looking guidance from many companies was weak, with businesses ranging from semiconductors, to software makers, to online and e-commerce platforms pointing to weakness across a broadening set of end markets.
To the contrary, the results from the U.S. banks and payment networks suggested the U.S. economy, and the consumer in particular, remains resilient right now. Many management teams indicated cash balances among U.S. households continue to be above average. While consumer spending was expected to moderate in the face of high inflation and growing economic uncertainty, it simply hasn’t materialized yet. Moreover, lending activity remained healthy, with strong loan growth across commercial, mortgage, and credit cards.
Overall, management teams were consistent in their assessment: they expect challenges to eventually surface, but there are few signs of an imminent shift in trend. Of note, the Canadian banks will report their results a month from now. Overall, we continue to believe the North American economy is more resilient than some may appreciate and the economic and earnings challenges may be more meaningful next year, once this year’s rates hikes have been fully digested. As investors, it’s important to keep in mind global markets are forward looking and tend to reflect the future outlook in advance. Meanwhile, a shift to a more patient approach by central banks would still be very welcomed by investors. Whether that change is underway remains to be seen, but we believe that eventuality is not too far off into the future.
“Learn from the past, set vivid, detailed goals for the future, and live in the only moment of time over which you have any control: now.” Denis Waitley
As we prepare for Halloween and handing out candy, be aware of the importance of your relationships and ensure that you are bringing intention to your days.
Eat well.
Move daily.
Get enough sleep.
Nurture your relationships.
In doing so, you will inevitably increase your enjoyment from life. Life is defined by time, time defined moments. Your moments are a priceless gift that make up your life and your life, this life, is the greatest journey you’ll ever be on.
Be well and enjoy the moments
Derek