Good morning and happy Monday!

It’s a brave new world, one of constant social media and the now ever so popular - Zoom meeting With all of this filtered content and communication, I can’t help but think authenticity runs the risk of being diluted.

Now, more than ever, I think it important that we remain authentic and intentional . I was listening to a Simon Sinek Pod Cast while working in the yard this weekend and I thought I’d share the thought with you. If you haven’t read his book Start with Why, I suggest you add it to your home library.

“Authenticity is about imperfection. And authenticity is a very human quality. To be authentic is to be at peace with your imperfections. The great leaders are not the strongest, they are the ones who are honest about their weaknesses. The great leaders are not the smartest; they are the ones who admit how much they don't know. The great leaders can't do everything; they are the ones who look to others to help them. Great leaders don't see themselves as great; they see themselves as human” Simon Sinek

I strongly believe this a very relevant concept in the current environment and a wonderful thought to begin the week, remembering what Mother Teresa once said, “Honesty and transparency make you vulnerable. Be honest and transparent anyway.”

Markets are looking buoyant again this morning, all pointing green and the opportunities we were investing in over the last few months are really solidifying their leadership positions. Who would I thought that by June 2020 we would be crystalizing gains – exciting markets!

Last week was It was an eventful week. Understandably, many were focused on the social unrest that permeated across the United States. As a result, in the media there was less attention paid to the pandemic and state of the economic recovery. Let’s take a brief Monday morning look at developments on both fronts, and also discuss the noteworthy move in the Canadian dollar.

Coronavirus update

A second wave of the coronavirus has been a concern since the beginning of this pandemic. Unfortunately, the risks of such an occurrence, particularly in the U.S., have increased. The mass protests across the country have resulted in a sharp unwind of the social distancing behavior that had existed across many American cities in recent months. There is no guarantee of a rise in infections once the incubation period expires in a week or two. In fact, should no spike in new cases ensue, it could suggest the transmission risks have declined, and lead to further easing of restrictions and act as another positive catalyst for stock markets. But the mass gatherings have created multiple opportunities for the virus to spread and re-emerge as a more serious risk. While markets do not appear very concerned about this, we believe it is something that bears watching.

The rebounding economy

Millions of people have lost their jobs across North America over the past few months. But, markets tend to be less concerned about what’s recently happened and more focused on the future. In other words, it’s the change in trend that is more important for investors. And the change has been positive. Weekly jobless claims for example have now declined for nine straight weeks in the U.S. and there have been early signs of certain jobs coming back as indicated by the recent employment reports out of the U.S. and Canada. This suggests some of the job losses may only be temporary in nature. Meanwhile, more “real time” or high-frequency data as it is often called is also portraying a slowly improving picture. For example, internet searches for “filing unemployment” have made fresh lows, driving mobility is nearly back to normal levels, the rate of year over year decline in retail sales is improving, and restaurant reservations are trending in the right direction. Even the Bank of Canada this week acknowledged that our country appears to have avoided the worst case outcome. The economic rebound is not just a North American phenomenon as monthly services and manufacturing data across China and much of Europe this week showed evidence of improving over the past month. Much work remains, but the overall trend is improving, rather than deteriorating. And with the prospects of extensions and expansions of aid and stimulus programs across China, Europe, and North America, governments and central banks remain very focused on providing economic support.

For you saving snowbirds --- the rise of the loonie…or the fall of the U.S. dollar?

The Canadian dollar had quite the week, breaching the $0.74 level for the first time since the beginning of March. But, its move higher may have more to do with the global recovery than with what’s transpiring domestically. While the U.S. dollar has fallen relative to the Canadian dollar, it has also depreciated against other major currencies too. And just as the U.S. dollar strengthens during periods of crisis as investors flock to it for its relative “safe haven” status, it can weaken as investor concern fades and risk appetite rises. We expect the weakness in the U.S. dollar may continue in the weeks to come barring any setbacks in the health crisis. But looking out beyond the next few months, Canada’s domestic challenges – high consumer debt loads, lack of pipeline capacity that exacerbates depressed energy prices, and weaker overall competitiveness levels - remain structural headwinds that may limit any sustainable move higher in the loonie.

Overall, we are encouraged by the broadening rally across equities and currencies, which suggests growing confidence in the economic recovery. Its path and sustainability longer-term remain questions in our minds. A new near-term risk has presented itself in the form of the abandonment of social distancing across the United States. We will be watching closely to see if it results in a re-escalation of the health crisis.

That’s all for this Monday morning memo, remember to be true, transparent and honest with yourself

True wealth can be found in authenticity

“No legacy is so rich as honesty.” Shakespeare