Good morning,
What a beautiful weekend – wonderful to see such activity outside over the weekend as we head into May. We celebrated both my Dad’s birthday and my wife Jenn’s birthday over the weekend, which is not easy to do in these times of social distancing, but we can still certainly convey our appreciation to those we love on milestone moments!
Over the weekend, our attention has turned to how to recover and reopen the economy, with serious concern about the “second wave”. Like the late Otis Redding, it seems we are all “sitting on the dock of the bay”, keeping an eye on the tide. However, instead of feeling we are “wasting time”, we should all be aware that this will certainly take time & patience to ensure that the health of our friends, family and neighbors are all top of mind.
With April now in our rearview mirror, we sit and “rest our bones” despite the “loneliness not leaving us alone”, it’s important to look forward with perspective.
Economic reopening plans
We will focus on Canada as there were notable developments last week. Our Prime Minister and the premiers released a list of common principles in each region for restarting the economy, including among other things: stability in number of hospitalizations and new cases, sufficient capacity to test, trace, and isolate an infected person, workplace protocols such as protective gear, and coordination of non-essential travel. There is an acknowledgement that each region faces unique circumstances and is likely to need different actions at different times. We have seen a few provinces begin to modestly lift restrictions, others are exploring industry specific guidelines, and some have unveiled phased approaches that are set to begin over the next week.
Market update
What a difference a month can make. The month of April was one of the best on record for global equity markets, standing in contrast to the month of March which was one of the worst. It is looking to be a wild start to the week already, with markets set to open RED today and equity markets are still down from their highs earlier this year, but the recent recovery has been nearly as staggering as the decline. How can this be? Unemployment has soared by millions and activity has basically ground to a halt. Yet, investors are looking beyond the dire economic headlines, believing that central banks and governments have bought enough time with significant aid for consumers, households, and businesses. The hope is that as economies begin to gradually reopen through May and June, we will see a sharp acceleration in economic and earnings growth as early as this summer.
Time & Patience
As we head into the new month, I want to ensure that we are constantly looking forward and understanding that maintaining our discipline and long term focus will ensure we are able to stay on the path toward the long term goals and we are looking beyond the valley.
While there is still work to be done, we are hopeful that we are past the peak of this health care crisis and can now transition our attention to the economic and earnings recovery. But, we don’t expect it to be an easy path forward. We expect some ups and downs along the way as uncertainty is likely to be higher than normal, risks of additional outbreaks remain, and some measures of social distancing are still required.
As you wake this morning, enjoying your coffee but feeling as though “nothing’s gonna change and everything still remains the same” it’s important to understand the real positive progress we are making on all fronts. We are all working together around the globe to ensure we are all doing our part to ensure our friends, family, community and the economy all remain healthy, it just takes time.