How agriculture can lead a new era for Canadian exports

March 03, 2025 | RBC - Lisa Ashton


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Food first: U.S. trade tensions have cast a spotlight on Canadian food trade

Key takeaways

  • U.S. trade tensions have cast a spotlight on Canadian food trade: American tariff threats pose a special challenge to Canadian agriculture and agri-food exports, as they now account for 20% of U.S. agri-food imports.
  • Exports to the U.S. are growing: Over 60% of Canada’s agriculture and agri-food exports go to the U.S.—and the value of those exports has quadrupled since 2000.
  • But Canada’s falling behind competitors globally: Canada’s position in global agriculture and agri-food trade has slipped to 7th from 5th place, and could drop to 9th by 2035 if corrective measures aren’t taken.
  • Rivals are gaining ground in the world’s top growth markets: Emerging competitors like Brazil have gained ground in Africa and the Middle-East, while traditional rivals like Australia are gaining market share in Southeast Asia..
  • Canada can increase our global share by 30%: With the right investments, Canada can increase global share from 3.7% to 4.8% to regain 5th place in exports, according to new modelling by RBC and the Boston Consulting Group’s Centre for Canada’s Future. That could add $44 billiona to agriculture and agri-food’s export value by 2035.
  • A clear plan is critical: To regain market share, Canada needs to focus on innovation, investment, export-oriented infrastructure, digital infrastructure, and overseas agri-food promotion.

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Economy