ES Insights

Long-term economic trends have left the U.S. economy increasingly reliant on spending by upper-income households. We unpack the potential implications for economic stability and Federal Reserve policymaking.

The U.S. government shutdown is now behind us, removing a notable source of uncertainty in the markets. While the shutdown possibly factored into some short-term economic slowdown, history shows this ‘lost ground’ is typically regained soon after. There...

The White House has made broad interpretations of existing legislative authority to make unilateral policy moves. We examine how this centralized ad hoc decision-making raises structural concerns and how the economic policy framework may evolve.

The greenback’s volatile year underscores the interplay between cyclical drivers and longer-term valuation challenges—factors that could have implications for global equity leadership.

We’re increasingly of the view that a series of disruptions are masking a very real cyclical U.S. economic slowdown underneath the surface.

Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...

We outline some of the proposed federal budget measures, and the effect they may have on Canadians and their families.

At the end of October and over 30-days into the U.S. federal government shutdown, the Federal Reserve (Fed) was forced to make an interest rate decision with only partial visibility into the economy. Meanwhile, signs of weakness in pockets of the Canadian...