This week, we provide another update on coronavirus trends and the plans to reopen economies. With April now in the rear view mirror, we also take a step back and look at how the markets recovered so sharply over the month. But, just as we did at the market lows in March, we remind investors to not let emotions get in the way after such a rebound. Rather, staying disciplined and sticking with the investment plan and process is just as important in recovery as it is during the depths of a crisis.
Progress. That sums up the covid-19 situation this week in the developed world. At a high level, the number of new case counts in countries such as Canada, the United States, and across Europe continues to trend lower. Even within the more troublesome provinces such as Quebec and Ontario, there have finally been signs of slowing new case counts. The same can be said across the border in the U.S., where most states have reported lower new daily case counts. The situation remains very worrisome in long-term care homes, particularly in the two aforementioned provinces, where the mortality rates have been higher given the more vulnerable population. In the emerging world, the story is also concerning. Russia, Brazil, India, and South Africa are just a few of the countries whose new daily case trends have been accelerating. The number of tests being conducted in these countries has been rising, contributing somewhat to these trends as more infected people are being discovered. We expect the trend to get worse before it hopefully stabilizes and improves as we have seen elsewhere. Aside from case trends, one issue that has potential to resurface in a negative way and bears watching going forward is geopolitical tension between the United States and China, as rhetoric around the source and handling of the virus appears to be escalating.
Economic reopening plans
We will focus on Canada as there have been notable developments this week. Our Prime Minister and the premiers released a list of common principles in each region for restarting the economy, including among other things: stability in number of hospitalizations and new cases, sufficient capacity to test, trace, and isolate an infected person, workplace protocols such as protective gear, and coordination of non-essential travel. There is an acknowledgement that each region faces unique circumstances and is likely to need different actions at different times. We have seen a few provinces begin to modestly lift restrictions, others are exploring industry specific guidelines, and some have unveiled phased approaches that are set to begin over the next week.
What a difference a month can make. The month of April was one of the best on record for global equity markets, standing in contrast to the month of March which was one of the worst. Equity markets are still down from their highs earlier this year, but the recent recovery has been nearly as staggering as the decline. How can this be? Unemployment has soared by millions and activity has basically ground to a halt. Yet, investors are looking beyond the dire economic headlines, believing that central banks and governments have bought enough time with significant aid for consumers, households, and businesses. The hope is that as economies begin to gradually reopen through May and June, we will see a sharp acceleration in economic and earnings growth as early as this summer.
Lessons learned and managing emotions
There are important lessons to be learned through this experience, some of which we have discussed in previous notes. First, markets are forward looking, and reflect the anticipation of what is expected to come, not what is necessarily happening right now. And second, when investor sentiment reaches an extreme, both negative and positive, it may not take much to change the trend. More specifically, there’s a point at which bad news no longer drives market prices lower. Moreover, news that is simply “less bad”, not necessarily “good”, can actually lead to positive price action as investors who have become accustomed to negativity have to shift their mindset.
Just as we did after the meaningful decline in March, we want to emphasize the need to manage emotions and stay disciplined and remain focused on long-term outcomes. While there is still work to be done, we are hopeful that we are past the peak of this health care crisis and can now transition our attention to the economic and earnings recovery. But, we don’t expect it to be an easy path forward. We expect some ups and downs along the way as uncertainty is likely to be higher than normal, risks of additional outbreaks remain, and some measures of social distancing are still required. Furthermore, it remains difficult to forecast the behavioural changes that some may experience, holding us back from a complete return to normal.
In the meantime, we continue to stick with our investment process and plan as we manage our client's portfolios through this tumultuous time.
This month on our Facebook page we will be focusing on financial wellness. We’ll be posting videos and articles focusing on estate planning, the importance of having an up-to-date will, and other considerations for your overall wealth management plan.
We’ll be starting with a 2020 financial “spring cleaning” to-do list. Many of you may be finding that you have extra time at home and are quickly checking off items on your spring cleaning list. This extra time should also be used to go through your financial ‘spring cleaning’ to-do list, including checking that your will and power of attorney are still current and that your account structures and beneficiary designations are still appropriate.
Here is a link to download a copy of your 2020 financial “spring cleaning” to-do list.
Two new 10-Minute Take podcasts
There are two new 10-minute take podcasts posted on our website.
How oil producers can help resolve their own crisis
North American producers have struggled to match the historic collapse in demand. One option is “shut and swap” – an idea that would see governments buy future production so oil companies can “smooth” their revenue and plan output with more confidence. Do Ottawa and Washington have the political stomach for that kind of risk? Greg Pardy, RBC’s Co-Head of Global Energy Research, joins our podcast to share his proposal.
May Day for commercial retail real estate
Commercial rent relief programs could not come soon enough. Small businesses, including retailers, struggling to make rent during the crisis months have been handed a lifeline. But will rent relief programs be enough to bridge them through the crisis? And how are landlords weathering the storm? Rod Hunt, RBC Commercial Banking’s Managing Director for Real Estate Lending, joins us with his outlook on the commercial real estate market.
Here is the link to our website if you are interested in listening to either of these podcasts: 10-Minute Take.
Take a virtual family vacation with these amazing travel stories
Escaping into a movie can be a welcome break during periods of self-isolating, especially if it's a movie that takes you places you've never been before or brings back memories of a favourite vacation spot.
Although you may have had to put your vacation plans on hold, we thought that we would share something that may help to inspire your future trips! RBC’s Virtual Family Vacation page features some far-away destinations that are beautifully showcased in unforgettable films, including Eat Pray Love that whisks us away to India, Italy, and Bali on a journey of self-discovery.
We continue to share the positive stories from in and around our community each week - We hope that you enjoy them!
- Shine a light to the sky on May 1 to show appreciation for doctors on the frontlines
- Guelph Children's Foundation 'bringing even more healthy food to hungry minds'
- Labour of love becomes ‘Lunch with Love’
- Guelph Symphony performs tribute to frontline workers
- Mattel is honouring front-line workers with special edition toys
- Warm weekend weather in the forecast!
As always, we remain vigilant and are available to answer any questions that you may have. Please don’t hesitate to contact us at 519-822-2024 or email@example.com.