From:                              Bonaguro, Mauricio

Sent:                               Friday, November 20, 2020 4:06 PM

To:                                   Archer, John (RBC DS)

Subject:                          Archer Wealth Management | Newsletter | New Version

 

 

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Newsletter  | November 20, 2020

 

Archer Wealth Management

 

Holistic wealth planning for you and your family: Estate and will planning, discretionary portfolio management, charitable gift plans, life insurance protection. For today and tomorrow...

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Welcome to our regular newsletter, where we do our best to keep you informed with Financial Planning articles, Estate Planning tips, Investment Management News, Tax Saving Strategies and various other ideas or photographs that you might like. We welcome your feedback as well as your referrals!

John & Mauricio

 

Our virtual gallery is coming soon…

 

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Photo by John Archer

 

As we teased last week, we are putting the finishing touches on our "virtual art gallery" in the coming days. Soon you will be receiving an exclusive invitation to enter our show "People" where I will take you on a guided tour of some of the people I have met and photographed on my travels. Get your passport ready for a virtual trip around the world from the comfort of your living room.

John Archer

 

 

Market News:

Addressing Market Volatility

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Investors, and much of the world for that matter, continue to be faced with a predicament that is likely to last into 2021. Near-term, the virus continues to present headwinds to economic and earnings growth. More importantly, it remains a serious challenge for the health care system and the overall well-being of millions of people. But, vaccine developments of late have been positive, suggesting a more sustainable recovery in the economy may emerge in the second half of next year. We discuss this below, and address the surprising resilience that we have seen with respect to corporate earnings this year.

 

Coronavirus update

 

Is Europe on the mend? It may be too early to conclude that it is past the worst of this second wave of the pandemic. After all, hospitalizations and deaths reached new highs across a number of countries over the past week. And the upcoming holiday season could complicate things. But, a number of countries - Belgium, France, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and the Netherlands – reported lower new daily infections over the past week. Elsewhere, data has been mixed across the region but there does appear to be greater stability, which is not necessarily surprising given the very restrictive measures put in place a few weeks ago.

Canada saw its new daily infections increase this past week. But, it too has seen the pace of new infection growth slow. Its 7-day moving average of new daily infections is now nearly 4,750 versus the 4,450 from a week ago. Saskatchewan and British Columbia led the way this past week with the highest rate of growth in new daily infections, prompting both governments to raise new restrictions around mandated mask wearing and travel. Alberta and Ontario saw increases, but they were relatively modest. Manitoba saw limited change over the past week, which was a welcome break given it continues to grapple with the highest infection rate per capita in the country. Quebec saw a fall in new infections. Unfortunately, the East Coast, which had up to this point largely avoided the second wave has now seen its numbers move higher, though the figures remain low relative to other provinces.

In the U.S., the number of new daily cases continued to march higher. The crisis is widespread and has escalated in some states, forcing some governments to take more restrictive action. With U.S. Thanksgiving less than a week away, we see limited scope for improvement over the next few weeks.

Vaccines on the horizon

 

There is rising optimism on the vaccine front. Over the past week, there were positive updates on three candidates.

Pfizer and BioNTech completed their Phase 3 trial and confirmed that their candidate’s efficacy rate was 95%. Interestingly, the efficacy was nearly as high for adults over the age of 65 as it was for younger people. The companies will be applying with U.S. regulators for “Emergency Use Authorization”, paving the way for some of the first millions of inoculations by the end of this year.

Moderna, whose vaccine uses similar technology, provided a positive interim update, indicating its vaccine is nearly 95% effective as well. It will likely conclude its Phase 3 trial in the coming weeks and file with regulators with the hopes of having 20 million doses available for emergency use by year-end.

Lastly, Oxford University, in partnership with pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, indicated that its candidate is showing promising results in its trial, in younger and older populations. Its vaccine is based off a more traditional approach to vaccine development, using a weakened version of a common cold virus found in chimpanzees.

 

Earnings resilience and outlook

 

The developments above increase the odds of having multiple vaccines available for use across the developed world as early as the spring. As a result, we have increasing confidence that a more sustainable recovery in the global economy and corporate earnings may be in store for the second half of next year and beyond.

Interestingly, despite the global pandemic, earnings this year have been more resilient than expected. Profits have indeed fallen given the shutdown of the global economy and the many restrictions that are in place across parts of the world. Companies in the S&P 500 - the U.S. equity market - for example, are projected to see their aggregate earnings decline by almost 16% in 2020. Yet, that decline is better than the average decline of 18% seen in the 11 recessions experienced in the U.S. dating back to 1948.

Admittedly, there are many companies and entire industries that are struggling, with significant declines in their business results – travel, leisure, some retail and restaurants for example. And there are others that have seen the opposite, as they have benefitted from the unusual environment – ecommerce, home improvement, and telecommunications for example. Moreover, the record amounts of aid supplied by governments around the world have offered meaningful support to consumers, households, and small businesses. In other words, not all companies and industries have proved to be as sturdy, and government support has likely inflated the level of profitability to some extent.

Nevertheless, we believe the better than expected earnings trends this year in the face of a global pandemic serve a reminder that there is an inherent resilience across economies and businesses that can often be underappreciated. That is an important lesson to take away for the next crisis we may be faced with at some point in our careers.

Should you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to reach out.

 

 

 

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Webcast: 

Monthly Economic Outlook – November 2020

 

Chief Economist Eric Lascelles tracks the latest economic developments, as virus cases continue to surge around the world. The pace of employment recovery varies across different countries, with Canada and the U.S. making slow but steady progress towards pre-COVID levels. Finally to the U.S. election: what the main policy considerations between Biden and Trump could mean from an economic view, from more fiscal stimulus to corporate tax rates.

As the firm’s Chief Economist, Eric maintains RBC GAM’s global economic forecast and advises our portfolio managers on key themes and risks. Eric holds a graduate degree in Economics from Queen's University as well as a Bachelor of Economics from Princeton University. He is also a frequent media commentator on global economic and financial trends.

Duration: 33 minutes

 

If you have any questions or need further guidance, please do not hesitate to contact us.

 

 

Click here to listen

 

 

 

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Virtual Event Invitation: 

In studio with David Chilton

 

 

Please join Leanne Kaufman, President and CEO, RBC Royal Trust for a virtual event with David Chilton, author of the best-selling personal finance books The Wealthy Barber and The Wealthy Barber Returns, and former Dragon on CBC’s Dragons’ Den.

This timely and exclusive discussion with David will tap into his unique insights on investment markets, the economy, and the current business environment during these tumultuous times.

RBC is proud to present this event as part of the collaboration between RBC Royal Trust and David Chilton, who have partnered to provide Canadians with more information about estate planning and the benefits of corporate executor services. Please watch David’s video to find out more.

Registered guests will also receive a complimentary ebook version of The Wealthy Barber Returns, with two new chapters exclusively written for RBC Royal Trust.

Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 12:00 pm ET.

Please RSVP by November 30, 2020. Thank you.

Click here to register

 

Brazilian cheese bread (Pão de Queijo)

 

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 Photo by Mauricio Bonaguro

 

 

Today's recipe is probably the most famous snack from Brazil. 100% gluten-free, these little cheese breads are crispy on the outside and fluffy on the inside, thanks to its preparation using tapioca flour. Tapioca flour is a great substitute for wheat flour for people allergic to gluten, and the flavor is great!

Where to buy tapioca flour? Nowadays one can find it in natural food shops, Bulk Barn, big chain supermarkets like IGA and even Walmart.

I must warn you, they are addictive! Once you have one, you will not be able to stop until finishing the tray ;)

Ingredients:

  • 1/2 cup of vegetable oil or butter.
  • 1/3 cup of water
  • 1/3 cup of milk of your choice
  • 2 cups of tapioca flour
  • 1 teaspoon salt
  • 2/3 cup freshly grated parmesan cheese (mix with some cheddar if available)
  • 2 eggs

Preparation:

 

Step 1: Preheat the oven at 400°F. Pour the oil, water, milk and salt into a large saucepan at high temperature. When it comes to a boil, remove from the heat and add the tapioca flour stirring until smooth. This will create a sticky mixture. Let it rest for 15 min until it cools down a little bit.

Step 2: We will now stir the cheese and eggs into the tapioca mixture and stir until well smooth. Feel free to use your hands if you feel like but be careful not to burn yourself because it may still be hot in the inside.

Step 3: Finally, we are going to create small balls of approximately 1.5 inch diameter by using a spoon and place them on a baking sheet covered with parchment paper leaving enough space among each other. Bake for 20 min. I have seen people using a muffin tray to help keeping the balls in place, in that case just replace the parchment paper with a little oil at the bottom to avoid it sticking to the tray.

Enjoy,

 

Mauricio

 

 

Referrals Corner 

Do you have a friend, family member, colleague or client that could benefit from our wealth management services? 

 

Perhaps start by forwarding to them this newsletter?

The link to our website is: johnarcher.ca

 

John Archer 

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor john.archer@rbc.com

Phone: 514-878-5040

Fax: 514-878-5070

LinkedIn

 

Mauricio Bonaguro 

Associate

mauricio.bonaguro@rbc.com

Phone: 514-878-7527

Fax: 514-878-5070

LinkedIn

 

 

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