A narrative spun that a recession was nearly unavoidable for a country that had become so dependent on a trade partner who now looked to sever parts of its economic relationship. And yet, Canada’s economy did not collapse. There were no two quarters of...

Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...

A new playbook for balancing bigger government with fiscal health We believe the context and composition of government spending matter as much as the quantum. Cyclically, our outlook has Canada avoiding a recession from the current set of tariffs, but...