My Favourite Season
November 3, 2025 - Maddy BoddenFall is upon us, to the delight of nature lovers and North American sports fans. You can enjoy a drive to see the fall colours and watch baseball, basketball, football and hockey in the same weekend. It is also the time of our favourite season of all: third quarter US earnings season.
Read MoreThe first cut is the deepest...Except for interest rates
October 3, 2025 - Maddy BoddenCat Stevens’ emotional ballad is about lost love, but one thing remains true as it relates to the stock market: investors love interest rate cuts. So why is the first cut important? One interest rate cut does not make a trend as it is only a simple data point. However, if more interest rate cuts happen, a trend begins, and the market gains momentum. This month, we will focus on North American interest rates and their projected impact on both the market and the economy.
Read MoreDoomscrolling for Optimists
August 21, 2025 - Maddy BoddenIf you have viewed social media, this has happened to you: you read an article on a topic of interest, and it raises a concern. An hour and 20 articles later, your level of concern has grown as you find several different opinions on the same topic. This is known as doomscrolling, and if you’re not careful, it can negatively influence how you process information and make decisions, particularly around investing. Our goal with this article is to help people move from being readers to researchers and separate facts from opinions.
Read MoreLunchtime in Washington
July 3, 2025 - Maddy BoddenThe US Administration’s budget bill has just passed the House of Representatives and is now ready to be signed into law. The budget proposes continuing the previous tax cuts introduced in the first Trump administration and increase spending on the military, border security and energy. However, this will lead to a budget deficit of approximately $3.3 trillion and thereby increase national debt. The bill also contains some unpopular and politically sensitive issues such as work requirements to receive Medicaid, which could leave millions of Americans without health insurance. As Milton Freeman famously quoted, there is no free lunch, and the US Administration must now deal with the consequences of a larger deficit and potentially disgruntled voters.
Read MoreElevators and Escalators
May 9, 2025 - Maddy BoddenWhen market volatility increases, investors most often associate this with risk. Volatility is a daily occurrence as stocks rise and fall constantly. The best definition of risk is a permanent loss of capital while volatility should always be viewed as a buying opportunity. One of the chief reasons investors have a tough time buying during volatile markets is a perceived imbalance between a further decline in the market and potential future gains. The classic market saying is that stock prices take an elevator down and an escalator back up. April’s stock market action was a classic example.
Read MoreMarch Madness
March 24, 2025 - Maddy BoddenWhen we normally talk about March Madness, we are usually referring to the annual NCAA Men’s and Women’s Basketball Tournaments. This year, the broad and sweeping changes of the Trump administration are the main topic of conversation both in Canada and around the world, particularly when it comes to tariffs. Given the level of concern about their possible impact, we will address the challenges posed by tariffs and the current US administration in general and discuss how we are positioning our portfolios to best defend against further unexpected developments.
Read MoreFacts vs. Predictions
February 5, 2025 - Maddy BoddenAfter a strong year in 2024, our thoughts now turn to the year ahead. The number one fact that very few predicted would actually come to pass was the US placing a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and 10% on oil and gas. The threat of tariffs had been widely seen as a negotiating tactic as the potential damage to both countries could be massive and is in violation of established trade agreements. With some last-minute negotiations, the tariffs have been avoided and Canada will be bolstering its border security and drug enforcement...
Read MoreRelativity and Investing
December 3, 2024 - Maddy BoddenLeonard Susskind, the noted theoretical physicist, famously quoted that Einstein proved that different observers, in different states of motion, see different realities. The markets are constantly in motion. Whether it is earnings, news, rumors, or just normal daily activity, every stock is reacting both to its own forces and in relation to the overall direction of the market. How any of those data points are perceived by the market is dependent on the intentions of the observer.
Read MoreThe Alignment of the Stars
October 21, 2024 - Maddy BoddenIn the children’s fantasy novel, Peter Pan, these are the directions to Neverland, home of Peter Pan and the Lost Boys. With investing, it is often difficult to know which star to follow as the investment horizon is ever changing, and never totally clear. In recent months, market focus has shifted among inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings, and even politics. All these items can have a profound effect on markets that must be carefully navigated. This month, we will review these points to determine the best investment path forward.
Read MoreThe Little Things
August 23, 2024 - Maddy BoddenDetails. Details. In the investment world, as long as the market is moving higher, data points that are deemed irrelevant are ignored until they become relevant. On August 5, we saw a large sell off in US equities after a 12% decline in Japan’s Nikkei stock index, all triggered by a rise in the yen after the Bank of Japan increased their interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%. How does such a little thing as a 0.15% Japanese rate increase send the US market into a tailspin?
Read MoreSo it begins
July 5, 2024 - Maddy BoddenIn the movie trilogy, the Lord of the Rings, the forces of good and evil battle over the fate of Middle Earth. In the investing world, the fight has been between inflation and interest rates with higher interest rates slowing the economy and bringing down the overall inflation rate. With inflation now heading towards the US Federal Reserve’s target of 2% and international inflation rates moving lower even faster, we have seen the first interest rate cuts from Canada and European Central Bank of 25 basis points. The question that presents itself is: are we finally at the beginning of an interest rate trend towards a normalized economy or will inflation again rear its ugly head as interest rate pressures are eased on consumers? This month, we will explore that question and the implications f
Read MoreInflation vs. Productivity
May 13, 2024 - Maddy BoddenOver the last six months, the global stock markets have moved higher as inflation fell and the prospect of declining interest rates grew closer. Now that US inflation has increased slightly at the end of March to 3.5%, we have seen the market have impatient sell offs in April as the number of projected rate cuts has dropped. What is seemingly being ignored at the moment is the ongoing strength of the US economy and the productivity gains being made. This month, we will examine Secretary Yellen’s comments and consider their implications for both the US economy and the stock market.
Read MoreThe Little Engine That Does
March 1, 2024 - Maddy BoddenIn the children’s story “The Little Engine that could”, a small train climbs a large hill because it believes in itself. Based on population, the US represents only 4.23% of the world, yet it has become the economic engine that pulls the world’s markets behind it.
Read moreOn the Road in 2024
January 17, 2024 - Maddy BoddenWith his 1957 novel “On the Road”, Jack Kerouac helped launch the Beat Generation. His stream of consciousness style and focus on independent thought and action made him an icon of his generation. In the investment world, popular opinion definitely drives the market, but it is independent thought and willingness to consider all factors that lead to better decision making and results. This month, we will consider the recent dramatic swing in market direction with an objective eye to determine what warning signs are on our investment road to investment success in 2024.
Read MorePowell and the Three Bears
November 24, 2023 - Maddy BoddenIn the real economy, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell first faced inflation that was too cold for many years, then too hot through Covid and now seems to be coming in at a more normal level. Powell used a historic rise in interest rates as well as reducing the money supply through sales of the government’s Treasury bond holdings. The market has been waiting to see if the Fed can get inflation down while engineering a Goldilocks soft landing for the US economy that avoids a recession. This month, we will look at the three bears: inflation, interest rates and the US economy, to see how close Chairman Powell is to getting things just right.
Read MoreValue Investing and the Markets
October 11, 2023 - Maddy BoddenWhen the markets get as choppy as they have this year, investors turn to value investments to be defensive but in a rising interest rate environment, even these investments have shown weakness. By definition, value stocks tend to pay higher dividends and are in stable industries that can weather a recession. However, there is a deeper meaning to value stocks than just the ordinary definition and this month, we will explore the intrinsic value of stocks in the particular context of today’s market.
Read MoreObvious Facts and the Stock Market
August 31, 2023 - Christopher E. O'ConnorIn great mystery novels, the author lays out the clues, both real and false, and the reader is left to follow along as best they can. The plot often turns on facts that are deemed obvious but mean something different when viewed in a different light.
Read morePerception vs. Reality in Investing
June 15, 2023 - Cooper W. FrankMay was a tough month for stock markets as fear of a U.S. debt ceiling crisis and a small increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index kept buyers on the sidelines...
Read moreIt Takes Two
June 15, 2023 - Cooper W. FrankIt’s a popular start to many quotes and a catchy hook in some popular songs but at this moment in market history...
Read moreThe Fed and Unintended Consequences
March 29, 2023 - Trevor CooperThe U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and its Chairman Jerome Powell have had a very difficult time over the last three years...
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