There are many things, that we’ve collectively learned from this pandemic and things I’ve personally learned on top of that. The weather hasn’t changed since we began this lockdown, and every day is Tuesday. There are too many shows to watch on all the streaming networks, yet most are not family friendly, my kids stay up waaay too late, its certainly tough to get your 10,000 steps in a day when working from home, we eat more baking (my daughters have baked through a 10Kg bag of flour) however, our daily cooking has become much more creative…

Many of you are telling me the same things, and it’s great to hear your personal stories, no matter if they are good or your struggling through this. The most important thing is that you are still safe, not sick and maintaining some form of normalcy throughout this time. Feel free to reach out even if it’s just to chat because you need to speak to someone other than the person your living with.

OK, Christian, you’re not Anne Landers so get on with it… What is going on here? The market is recovering quickly and I don’t know why…

I’ll let you in on a little secret… None of us know what is really going on, soothsayers (Analysts) and forecasters (experts on TV) are making as good a guess as others. We are in unprecedented times, and nothing from past market corrections can really be used to determine the current outcome. However, we can all agree on one thing…. We will get through this.

All we know is that there has been more and quicker central bank deployment of cash, cuts and “stimulus” than in 2009. What took almost 18 months to coordinate in 2008/09 took about 18 days in 2020. Rates were cut to 0 (zero), Huge payment programs were implemented (and still being announced almost weekly), new forms of Quantitative Easing are being used through the world. There is sooooo much “funny money” in this market, with nowhere else to go so the market is the biggest benefactor.

Forward earnings forecasts can be thrown out the window… Currently, NO one knows what the future earnings can possibly be, because we don’t know to what extent the consumer is impacted by COVID or what government help has done or will continue to do to earnings. Even Unemployment numbers are unreliable, as some of these jobs are temporarily shut down, others have just given up looking, yet others don’t even want to go work bc the government’s programs are paying them more to stay at home. How long can/will these programs continue? What happens when they stop?

This means there will be more volatility for the short term…

Doesn’t that make you nervous??

Let’s examine your time horizon and your objectives. If anything has changed over the last 2 months that is different than before, we need to talk about it. Your portfolios (for the most part) have performed better than the indices and more than likely better than your neighbours… Over all your portfolios are built using a long term strategic plans that are personalized for you, are responsive to changes and monitored often. (please tell your friends or family).

Sooooooo what are you saying?

need to evolve to reflect the market changes that are occurring. Everything that you own has the possibility of going lower from here in the short term, and more than likely be higher in 2-3 years.

In this market we can already see 3 types of companies emerging. Those that have already recovered and are making new highs (because they are in themes that were already in place for the future and this has only accelerated them –some have probably gotten ahead of themselves), those that have recovered ½ of their loss and act similar to the overall market (best in class, but currently in a remedial class), and those that have only recovered 1/3 of the loss and will probably struggle for years (some may never recover).

think we should take the time and evaluate your holdings and look to make strategic shifts out of companies that look like they have added risk to your portfolio (because of fast gains or those that will have a hard time recovering further. This may mean taking losses, which is difficult, but it’s better to adjust now and inform you of the risk inherent, raise some cash and navigate the risks and rewards of the market so that you have a clear picture of your investments.