A big majority of economists polled see the U.S. economy in the “late cycle” stage. We agree—the U.S. economy and likely the Canadian and British economies are in the late stages of what will probably go down as the longest-ever economic expansion, measuring from the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009.

Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management, Inc., assigns scores to 17 different factors as to where they are in their normal cyclical progression (see table). Overwhelmingly the majority are giving readings typical of the “late” or “end” of cycle. But importantly none are behaving as if the U.S. were already in recession.

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