Weekly Update, March 12, 2021

Mar 12, 2021 | Brenda Miller


Share

Good Evening everyone,

 

 

I am writing this e-mail as I look out at the sunset over a melting lake.  I am taking a few days out of the office and won't be returning until Wednesday.  

 

I want to remind you that Tax Season is upon us, and many of you will be spending the weekend gathering up your tax receipts, I'm sure.  Most of you receive your tax packages from us electronically through DS Online, while a few of you are still receiving paper copies. 

 

Your tax packages include a checklist of required receipts that should be out to you over the next few weeks. If you think you are missing any of your tax forms, you should reach out to Paula at paula.austin@rbc.com or 1-905-434-8170, or Taylor at taylor.miller@rbc.om or 905-434-4450.

 

We send out our weekly e-mails every Friday, which may contain monthly or weekly information. Going forward, you will also be able to read these updates here on my blog, alongside a variety of curated articles which you may also enjoy reading.

 

Finally, the global monthly insight for March 2021 is available, you can find it at:
https://ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com/brenda.miller/global-market-commentary.

Thank you, and have a great weekend,

Brenda

 

Brenda Miller CFP, CIM, FCSI
Vice-President and Portfolio Manager
905-434-6603
brenda.miller@rbc.com


 

The upward pressure on bond yields that had been so notable of late was less pronounced over the past week, driven by a confluence of factors that we explain below. Meanwhile, trends on the virus front have deteriorated. The next wave of the pandemic may have less meaningful investment implications this time around given the rollout of vaccines, but it suggests the world is not quite out of the woods just yet.

Coronavirus Update
Frustratingly, the rate of new infections is increasing once again in some countries. In Canada, the 7-day average rate of new daily infections stands at over 3000 for the first time in a month. The country’s largest province, Ontario, is mostly responsible as it has experienced a noticeable uptick in cases, driven largely by new variants of the virus. But, Manitoba has also seen an increase. Most other provinces have continued to see declines.

Meanwhile, parts of Europe are struggling to contain a third wave of the virus that is already well underway. Most notable has been Eastern Europe, with the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland all experiencing some of the largest infection rates in months. Even Italy and France are dealing with rising figures. Elsewhere, Turkey, India, and Brazil are all examples of other countries around the world that are contending with rising infection rates.

The U.S. continues to experience declines. However, the rate of improvement has slowed, and a few states are now seeing rising trends.

Bond yields face some resistance… for now
Global bond yields faced a bit of resistance this past week, which provided some support to global equity markets and led some like the Canadian stock market to reach a new high for the year.

There were a number of factors at play that helped limit the upward pressure on bond yields. First, the inflation readings out of the U.S. for the month of February were relatively tame, which served to remind investors that the economy is still in the early stages of recovering and that any signs of pricing pressures have yet to materialize.

Secondly, the European Central Bank decided to take action to offset the recent move higher in bond yields by committing to buy government bonds at a faster clip, hoping to drive bond yields lower as a result. This adds to a similar decision undertaken by the Reserve Bank of Australia the week before. It underscores the notion that monetary authorities remain focused on ensuring that financing conditions – such as borrowing costs for businesses and consumers – remain very accommodative.

Lastly, bond markets were supported by a sizeable debt auction by the U.S. government that went reasonably well. Many governments are issuing increasing amounts of debt to fund the massive amounts of aid and stimulus that have been announced since the onset of the pandemic. This includes the $1.9 trillion stimulus package signed into law by the U.S. administration in recent days. The bond auction resulted in reasonably healthy demand from investors this past week, including large institutions such as pension funds for example.

Ultimately, markets were reassured to some extent that inflation is not yet an issue, central banks remain proactive, willing and able to intervene to counteract forces that could jeopardize an economic recovery, and there remains sufficient investor demand to absorb a growing supply of low yielding government bonds, despite inflation concerns.

We still expect markets to be tested in the months to come as inflation readings should rise as we lap the spring period from a year ago. The potential to overshoot inflation expectations in the near-term remains a possibility given the high amount of savings, pent-up demand, and new rounds of stimulus. Over the longer-term, we are less convinced that inflationary forces will prevail. As always, we remain vigilant and prepared for any additional market wobbles.

Should you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to reach out.


This information is not intended as nor does it constitute tax or legal advice. Readers should consult their own lawyer, accountant or other professional advisor when planning to implement a strategy. This information is not investment advice and should be used only in conjunction with a discussion with your RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Investment Advisor. This will ensure that your own circumstances have been considered properly and that action is taken on the latest available information. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the time obtained but neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers can guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. This report is furnished on the basis and understanding that neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers is to be under any responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof. The inventories of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. may from time to time include securities mentioned herein. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. is a member company of RBC Wealth Management, a business segment of Royal Bank of Canada. ® / ™ Trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence.