Technical Update

July 16, 2019 | John Arch MacDougall


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As you may have heard in the news lately, U.S. stock market indexes have reached new all-time highs in recent weeks.  But despite these impressive milestones, the positive headlines belie the fact that markets haven't done a whole lot over the last 18 months (click on chart for visual).  

A market that bounces around in a sideways trend like this is referred to by investment professionals as a consolidation period.  Consolidation periods can last several years and they can be very frustrating for investors.  Although we would all love to see our portfolios grow every single year, these sideways markets are actually quite normal.  Think of them as a way for the market to pause and take a breather after a good run.  In fact, since this bull market began in 2009, we've had two other consolidation periods that were longer than the current one (click on chart for visual).

Successful investing requires a great deal of patience at the best of times.  But currently, as we work through this late-cycle environment, patience is even more crucial.  As we've said before, there are times to be aggressive with your money and there are times to be cautious.  Our view remains that this is a time for caution.  We continue to manage portfolios accordingly.