Good Evening Readers,
Markets have been jumpy the past few weeks. It’s been a dream for volatility traders, and a blip for long term investors like us.
Remember that – Keep calm and carry on.
We positioned ourselves for this, and now we wait for the market to come to us.
It’s impossible to say exactly what the catalyst is for market volatility, but one under reported and underrated impact – Consumers shifting preferences to local goods in protest of Tariffs from he who shall not be named.
Check out the Atlanta Fed’s GDP now.
- As I started writing this note on the weekend, Friday’s reading showed a decline in Q1 GDP estimates decline from +2.3% to -1.5% thanks to a decline estimates for net exports
- I.e. people aren’t buying as much American stuff
- Some rhetoric is giving partial attribution to tariff front running, problem is – why aren’t inventories or consumption up?
- Seems like it’s a decline in exports
- Today it’s down to -2.8%
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
It makes sense.
I’m not one to bring a protest to the grocery store, but when I see an alternative with a Canadian flag on the price label, it’s a thoughtless choice. And it’s not just me if there are empty shelves advertising the maple leaf. Meanwhile, the same is happening across the globe, just ask Elon.
- Grocers stocking up on on Canadian, international suppliers | Financial Post
- Tesla shares slump after European sales fall
I’ve given a lot of thought about this.
The US can’t go it alone.
Even if it is just a united, consumer boycott against them. If we see the white house lecturing other countries how to behave, embarrassing people, threatening any country that doesn’t bend the knee, the US is gonna hurt. The global economy will also suffer.
It will be interesting to see how aggregate demands shift
Balanced Model +0.71% in February
Our Paper Portfolio rises to $1,039,349, +3.9% ytd
If it’s not broken, don’t fix it.
There’s no major changes to the portfolio this month – Rebalances and a few small substitutions amongst our utilities and fixed income holdings. We’ve made changes to the majority of client portfolios already.
As always, If you have any questions or comments – let me know!
Much love to you and yours,
Lucas
About the Paper Portfolio – Balanced Model
The Paper Portfolio is a model and NOT a real investment account. For any readers interested in a full list of positions and/or Monthly Performance, they are available upon request. No individual should act on this as investment advice, please consult a professional. The Paper Portfolio does not take into consideration taxes, or income requirements.