In my last update on July 22, I commented on how I felt it was a mistake to assume that Donald Trump was going to win the election after Joe Biden’s debate performance and the assassination attempt made it look like nothing was going to prevent a Trump win. Within hours of me sending that email, Joe Biden stepped out of the race, was replaced by Kamala Harris and after their first debate on Tuesday night, all indications are that the US could be on track to elect their first female President.
I still think it is too close to call and as we get closer to November 5th, any number of intervening factors could tip the scales either way. I’m not overly concerned longer term about the markets whoever wins. I am watching things in the short term, however, and there are definitely things to weigh and consider as we invest our money. To me, the number one concern economically are the corporate tax cuts that Trump initiated in 2018. Thankfully, they are not due to expire at the end of 2025 like everything else but it will be a key issue that could move the market in the next couple of years.
I’m attaching a report that was put together by our Global Portfolio Advisory Committee. It provides a very deep dive into all the issues that matter most to the economy and the stock market. If you have the time and the interest, I highly recommend it. This is one of the most consequential US Presidential elections in a very long time and so being aware of the range of outcomes just makes common sense.
Please let me know if you have any questions.