The summer seems to be speeding by, which seems strange as we are not doing our usual travelling nor do we have a vacation planned.  We had hoped to rent a cottage this summer but cannot find anywhere in Ontario so we are happy to be spending time in the backyard.  If you are like us and are looking for something to do close to home I found this article interesting: Fun things to do in Toronto & GTA during COVID-19 Ontario Reopening Phase.  Kieron and I took an impromptu drive last weekend towards Niagara-on-the-Lake.  We stopped in Jordan and had our first meal out on a patio.  I was a little nervous at first but was pleasantly surprised with all the precautions the restaurant was taking. I felt safe and it was great to do something 'normal'.  After lunch we went to Niagara-on-the-Lake, wondering how they would be managing without the Shaw festival.  We were not alone in this idea, as the little town was very busy.  Thankfully they had closed the main street allowing pedestrians to walk on the road ensuring everyone could social distance.  The stores were mandating mask wearing and limiting the amount of patrons inside.  Everyone was patient and things seemed to be running smoothly.  I continue to be amazed by how businesses are adapting to the restrictions and how Canadians are being patient and looking out for one another.  Given what we are currently seeing in some U.S. States it made me feel proud of our collective attitude of caring for each other.  If you would like to learn how businesses are adapting read Keeping business rolling: How one board & bike shop pivoted during the pandemic.

 

Economic and Market Update

It’s been a tale of two stories the past few weeks. On the one hand, there have been concerning coronavirus trends across key hotspots and new localized outbreaks in some countries. On the other hand, we have seen resilient markets which appear to believe that, for now, the worst of the economic damage may be behind us, and that solutions in the form of vaccines may be on the horizon.  The U.S. is causing concern for many of us. The number of new daily cases in the U.S. averaged well over 60,000. For context, this figure was below 30,000 about a month ago. Trends remain most concerning in large states such as Florida, Texas, and California. This has resulted in a growing list of states that have halted their reopening plans. Not surprisingly, some of the high frequency data in the U.S. such as mobility trends, credit card spending, and restaurant bookings suggest that activity has begun to moderate following the initial recovery seen last month. Furthermore, the strong initial rebound we saw in the U.S. labour market may be waning.  Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets' Chief U.S. Economist, in a recent 10-Minute Take podcast, discusses Can U.S. markets stay up while summer shutdowns expand?

 

There was encouraging news this week on the vaccine front. The New England Journal of Medicine published detailed results of a U.S.-based Phase I vaccine trial. To be clear, early positive results from the trial were released in May, and understandably fueled a positive market response back then. The paper this week confirmed the vaccine demonstrated the ability to safely help all 45 trial participants produce antibodies to protect against the virus. It is expected to move to a Phase 3 trial by the end of this month.

 

In Canada, COVID-19 trends remain more comforting. Provincial and local governments have moved forward with reopening plans. One of the major dilemmas now facing government officials is on the school front. Some provinces have already committed to a full return in the fall, at least for elementary schools, while others are exploring options that include a hybrid approach of in-class, staggered, part-time, and virtual class sessions. These decisions have major repercussions on productivity, the labour force, and the overall trajectory of our country’s economy in the second half of this year and beyond. Our economy can use all the help it can get. This week, the new Bank of Canada Governor indicated it may take two years to reach the level of economic output we saw in 2019.  Ottawa is forecasting an enormous $343 billion deficit in 2020.  Craig Wright, RBC Chief Economist discusses his views on Canada's fiscal snapshot in the podcast Canada's fiscal snapshot - massive deficit, record federal debt.

 

We continue to be impressed with the stock market's resiliency, however, we recognize that the recovery will likely take some time and we have taken this into consideration in how we position our discretionary portfolios to continue to perform in this environment.

 

Your Financial Health & Wellbeing

Our health care system is facing one of the biggest public health crisis in a century.  In the most recent RBC Disruptors series, this podcast discusses how the pandemic has been a catalyst for the adoption of new technologies.  Listen to how Canadian healthcare is transforming in A digital Cure for Healthcare

 

Cyber criminals continue to take advantage of increased anxiety in Canadians with cyber crimes spiking.  Learn How to Protect Against Cyber Crimes

 

In our last blog we talked about how COVID was impacting student employment.  This week RBC Economics considers how the Pandemic threatens decades of Women's labour force gains.  

 

On Tuesday July 28 at 1:00pm EST RBC Wealth Management is hosting a virtual event featuring Leanne Kaufman, President and CEO of RBC Royal Trust and Michael Nicin, Executive Director of the National Institute on Ageing at Ryerson University (NIA) to discuss the health and financial challenges faced by older Canadians.  RBC Wealth Management has recently announced a strategic partnership with NIA, a think-tank focused on researching and developing healthcare, financial security and social well-being policy solutions for Canada's aging population.

The webcast, Empowering Solutions to Age with Dignity and Choice, will discuss:

• Various options for late-in-life living circumstances including the impact of rising health care costs.

• How individuals and their families can best prepare for and sustain each of those options.

• Ways Canadians can empower themselves to live the retirement lifestyle they choose.

The discussion will be followed by a live Q&A session.

Special Guest

Michael Nicin

Executive Director, National Institute on Ageing

Michael previously served as the Chief of Staff and Senior Policy

Advisor to the Ontario Minister of Senior Affairs, leading the design

and launch of the provincial seniors strategy.  Prior to that he was

the Senior Policy Advisor to the Ontario Minister of Children and

Youth Services.

 

If you are interested in joining this virtual event please email Sarah and we will send you an invitation with a link to register for the webcast.

 

Are you looking for experiences to enjoy virtually from home:

• Theatre Calgary has re-imagined their traditional summer theatre and are presenting a virtual show.  RBC Foundation is the proud supporter of the Emerging Artist Project.  If you are interested in a free viewing of Romeo & Juliet please click here.

• Sit back and watch the sharks swim by at Ripley's Aquarium of Canada.

• RBC is proud to launch a new virtual performance series via Instagram, First Up with RBCxMusic, that will support and promote emerging Canadian recording artists and musicians - a group that has been hit especially hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Artists will take the virtual stage on the @RBCxMusic Instagram page as well as their own individual Instagram channels. If you have Instagram you can log in and follow along to show your support.

 

Enjoy your weekend!