It is finally beginning to look like spring has arrived! We thought we would take this opportunity to provide you with a market update and share some team news.

Market Update

Equity markets have experienced a considerable rebound since last year. The S&P/TSX Composite Index finished 2018 down 9%, with the same index now showing an increase of 13% in the first quarter of 2019. In the fixed income markets however, the yield curve has officially inverted. A yield curve inversion happens when the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond moves below the yield on the short-term Treasury bond. This is one of six indicators RBC has used in the past to reasonably predict when a recession would come. The yield curve is the only indicator on the scorecard currently giving a warning signal that a recession is coming.  The remaining are still in expansionary status.

Three of the indicators on our scorecard (the yield curve, unemployment claims, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index) can give signals a year before the recession, whereas the other three indicators (the unemployment rate, ISM new orders minus inventories and the Fed Funds vs the nominal growth rate) flash signs of a recession when it is very close to happening. To read more about the yield curve inversion please click here.

Now that one of our indicators is showing a cautionary warning we have compiled a series of articles to better prepare you over the months to come.

• Please click here for a brief Market Commentary.
• Please click here for an article on recession-proofing portfolios. This article explains the three R's and why they are important to remember.  As our clients know, these three Rs are central to our investment philosophy.
• Please click here for an article on Market Timing. Although this article is a bit more technical than the others, it explains that trying to time the market over the long term ultimately has minimal impact on portfolio returns. As Sir Jon Templeton said "The best time to invest in the market is when you have the money"

Hayes Vickers Private Wealth Management News

We are excited to welcome two new team members to support you. Pia Camilli has joined us from RBC Retail Banking and Dan Vidic came to us from within RBC DS. If you would like to read more about them please click here to read their bios.

Lauren has started her maternity leave and we are wishing her well with the new addition of a baby daughter to her family.

The rest of the team is still here and always happy to assist you. 

Hayes Vickers Private Wealth